Energy-transition constraints are real, but long-range analysis has to model how investment, substitution and policy respond.
A lot of weak energy-transition analysis makes the same mistake in opposite directions. The booster version assumes every deployment curve will keep rising smoothly, as if grids, mines, factories, workers, permitting systems and customers are all waiting obediently for the spreadsheet. The fatalist version takes the bottleneck visible today and … [continued]
It’s been a popular topic lately to write about China’s EV sales slump in 2026, growing EV exports from China, and various policy changes and even controversies related to that. But there’s much more going on that isn’t typically acknowledged. First of all, note that while China’s EV sales are … [continued]
While the solar industry really got its jumpstart in the US, and then grew to a significant level in Germany, it’s China that completely exploded the industry while driving costs down to unbeatable levels. The same thing basically happened with electric vehicles as well. However, there’s still much more that … [continued]
Yesterday, BYD officially launched sales of the Datang or “Great Tang.” The premium SUV went on sale with over 150,000 pre-orders on the books over the past month, after having been previewed months earlier. BYD has been supply constrained with its latest models featuring the second-generation Blade Battery. Based on … [continued]
China’s infrastructure and property buildout was the materials event of the modern economy, and its decline changes the denominator for steel, cement, coal, freight, and fuels.
One of the easiest ways to get long-range energy and materials demand wrong is to treat first-build infrastructure demand as a permanent condition. Countries build their first stock of housing, highways, ports, rail, power systems, water systems, industrial parks, and concrete-and-steel cities once. After that, the demand structure changes. The … [continued]
ICE model sales crash 39% in May High gas prices and a never ending wave of new models has allowed May to reach record EV market share, with plugins reaching a record 63%! However, while record market share was achieved in the past thanks to strong EV sales, this time, … [continued]
In addition to NIO’s response, BYD issued a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (01211) yesterday (Google translation): This announcement is a voluntary announcement made by BYD Company Limited (the “Company”, together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”). Our company notes that the U.S. Department of Defense issued a “Notification … [continued]
The US Department of Defense has declared that BYD, Nio, CATL, Baidu, and some other large Chinese manufacturers and technology companies are “Chinese military companies” — they have been put on the Department of Defense’s Section 1260H. NIO, an all-electric vehicle company that sells EVs in Europe and other countries … [continued]
Chinese NEV (BEV and PHEV) resale values are up 30%, with Chinese media noting specific rises for BYD, Nio and Denza brands. Sales volume is also up 29% as more EVs become available on the used market. Used car dealers report scrambling to buy NEVs to resell. Meanwhile used gasoline … [continued]
EVs are reaching new levels of market penetration in China. Chinese retail NEV (BEV and PHEV) market share was estimated to be 63% for May, while Chinese wholesale (includes exports) reached 61%, according to CPCA, as reported in CnEVPost. We will have to wait for a more detailed breakdown. While … [continued]
