President Biden has stepped up and made a commitment for the US to reduce carbon emissions 50% by 2030 versus 2005 levels. 50 by 30! We need to do it and we can do it! But what is the best path? There is strong underlying logic behind this new commitment. … [continued]
If we aggressively pursue the energy transition, every one of us will receive dividends as we invest in a brighter future. As is the case with many investments, the energy transition may be justified (and sold) based on the dividends alone. The fact that our offspring inherit a livable world might just be a side benefit.
The electric system of 2050 will be around 2.5 times the size of the electric system today due to electrification. But electricity is so much more efficient at producing the final “energy services” (heat, motive power, light, etc.) that total energy use will be far lower than it is today.
The energy system by 2050 can be completely transformed from where it is today, but we will need to really pick up the pace. We need to go from adding 20 or so gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar a year to around 130 GW a year for the next 30 years. This article goes through the numbers.
For those deeply interested in our future energy system and how it will evolve, I highly recommend two in-depth papers published in the last year. Here I will show a similar vision step-by-step using some of the same assumptions and publicly available data using “back of the envelope calculations” (spreadsheets).
I would love to have 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such a goal is admirable for its audacity and for its ability to get people motivated. For that I applaud it. But when we get down to it, will it be smart policy? Could it be that 90% would provide greater carbon savings than 100%?
Global problems need global solutions. Voluntary agreements and unilateral acts only go so far. We need a strategy to make climate action spread — to make it so contagious it will “go viral,” start a chain reaction, trigger a “domino effect.”
To green the grid, we must adopt a strategy of meeting our energy needs with low-cost renewable wind and solar resources. The obvious question is how to resolve the intermittency issue (what happens when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine). Solving this problem is a necessary ingredient for “saving the planet.”
What does the US need to do to help the world prevent the worst of climate change? End the use of fossil fuels fast. Many are stepping up to the challenge with aggressive goals. The EU wants to be fossil free by 2050. Joe Biden’s campaign wants the US to be fossil free by 2050 as well, based on his stated climate policy …
We are making great progress, with costs of solar, wind, and batteries continuing their decline. But we are not moving fast enough to turn the tide on human-caused climate change. One study I saw recently said we need to be installing wind and solar at triple the current rate to get to 90% renewable just for electricity by 2035.
