Netherlands Reaches 28% BEV Share In November!

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Despite an artificially inflated November 2020 (CO2 fleet mandates + fiscal changes), the Dutch plugin vehicle (PEV) market managed to stay in positive territory last month (+7% YoY), with 10,613 plugin registrations logged in November, a new year best.

And with the overall market continuing to drop significantly (-18% YoY), one can’t really complain about the small growth rate. Last month’s PEV share of the overall passenger auto market reached an amazing 39% (28% BEV), pulling the year-to-date PEV share to 25% (15% BEV) and the total tally to 72,314 units.

The PEV market share is still slightly down compared to last year’s full-year result (25%), but it shouldn’t be for long, as the market share should continue growing.

Let’s now break down registrations between the two basic plugin powertrains. BEVs are returning to form, getting 69% of October’s registrations. That allowed pure electrics to gain a bit more of a lead on plugin hybrids in the year-to-date tally (58% vs. 42%). Expect pure electrics to continue growing their lead in the last two months of the year.

In November, the Skoda Enyaq ended a streak of consecutive wins from the Kia Niro EV, thanks to a record 998 units, while the Lynk & Co 01 PHEV kept its runner-up spot, with a record 649 deliveries, pulling the Korean crossover to the last place on the podium.

There were 4 plugin models in the overall Dutch top 10. The Skoda Enyaq won its first overall #1, while the Kia Niro EV contributed to the Kia Niro’s 2nd position in the overall market with 61% of the registrations. The Lynk &Co 01 PHEV was #5 in the overall ranking, and we also have the Volkswagen ID.4 (4th in the plugin table) showing up at #9 in the general ranking, thanks to a year best score of 535 units, a new year best for the German crossover.

In fact, record and year best scores were plentiful last month. On top of those already mentioned, four other models also hit record performances, starting with the hot #5 Kia EV6 (473 registrations) passing up its platform sibling Hyundai Ioniq 5 (395 registrations), the compact #8 Audi Q4 e-tron (416 registrations), and the Volvo XC60 PHEV(!), which after four years on the market has managed to score a record 167 registrations (no doubt thanks to the revised PHEV drivetrain specs).

Other models making themselves noticed were the #7 Polestar 2. Thanks to the new, cheaper versions, the Polestar 2 had a year best score of 420 registrations. After being comatose during most of the year, the VW ID.3 is enjoying a revival, having landed a year best performance of 363 registrations, while the #11 Peugeot e-208 also had a year best, 311 deliveries, and the #18 Mini Cooper EV scored year-best 157 registrations.

Outside the top 20, November saw important models landing, like the BMW i4, which got its first 54 registrations, as much as its Tesla Model 3 nemesis had last month. Others started to ramp up deliveries, like the stylish Cupra Born, with 61 registrations in its second month on the market. Established nameplates hit more year-best scores (the Audi e-tron had 82 registrations), and there was even space for veterans to shine, like the Hyundai Ioniq Electric (yes, the streamlined, old one), which had 116 deliveries, a new year best. The future classic BMW i3 also had its best month of the year in November, with 84 registrations.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the race for the leadership position continues, with the Czech Skoda Enyaq displacing the Kia Niro EV from the throne, but with less than 200 units separating the two, I believe this will be a race until the last day!

The Volkswagen ID.4 is now just 7 units behind the #3 Volvo XC40 PHEV, so we should see the German crossover reach the podium in the last stage of the race, thus creating a 100% BEV podium in 2021. We could even see a full BEV top 4 if the Ford Mustang Mach-E manages to surpass the Swede next month. Only 106 units separate the two models.

Despite this, there is good news for the Geely–Volvo group. The striking Lynk & Co 01 PHEV is now threatening the #6 Ford Kuga PHEV, and with only 12 units separating them, the Chinese crossover will have no problem surpassing it in December, thus making a #1 & #2 win for Geely–Volvo in the PHEV category.

Still on the Sino–Swede group, the Polestar 2 jumped four positions, to 10th, and might even aspire to surpass the #9 Tesla Model 3, all depending on how big the high tide of the US sedan will be in December.

In the second half of the table, Volkswagen Group had reasons to celebrate, with the stylish Audi Q4 e-tron surging five spots, to #13, while the Volkswagen ID.3 was also up, to #16, finally surpassing its category arch-rival, the fearsome … Nissan Leaf (!?!?), which is now down to #20.

Finally, the #18 BMW 3 Series PHEV continued to drop in the ranking, due to changing winds (BEVs are back, baby!). It could be out of the top 20 once the year ends, reinforcing the importance of the BMW i4 landing in Dutch territory.

November witnessed a double leadership change. In model ranking, the Skoda Enyaq is the new best seller. In the manufacturer ranking, the previous leader was also ousted. Volvo (10%) lost the leadership position last month to a rising Kia (10%), which, thanks to the EV6 model addition, is now the best selling EV brand in this market.

Third placed BMW (8%, down 1 percentage point) is losing share every passing month and now has #4 Skoda (8%) in the rearview mirror, so we might see another position change on the podium.

Finally, #5 Ford (7%, down 1%) is now being chased by a rising Volkswagen (7%, up 1%), so we might see the German brand climb another position in the last stage of the race.

As for OEMs, there were important changes to mention. While Volkswagen Group (22%, up 1 point) is firm in the leadership position and runner-up Geely–Volvo (15%) seems secure in the 2nd position, but below it, we have a rising OEM that might just pull off a surprise at the last minute.

In fact, Hyundai–Kia (13%, up 1 point) is the current sensation in this market. After surpassing the Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance in September and jumping ahead of Stellantis and BMW Group in October, the Korean auto group hopes that Geely–Volvo slips in December and Hyundai–Kia grabs the bronze medal in the last minute.

This would be an amazing story to tell. Hyundai–Kia has already gained 3 positions and 4 percentage points in the last three months. Winning the 2021 bronze medal in extremis would be not only a reason to party hard, but also a whole letter of intention for the Korean OEM in the race for the 2022 title.

With the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 still ramping up deliveries, on top of an already strong lineup (e.g., the Kia Niro will have a refresh soon…), expect the Korean Group to continue growing, possibly becoming Volkswagen Group’s main competition in the 2022 race.

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José Pontes

Always interested in the auto industry, particularly in electric cars, Jose has been overviewed the sales evolution of plug-ins on the EV Sales blog, allowing him to gain an expert view on where EVs are right now and where they are headed in the future. The EV Sales blog has become a go-to source for people interested in electric car sales around the world. Extending that work and expertise, Jose is also market analyst on EV-Volumes and works with the European Alternative Fuels Observatory on EV sales matters.

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