In April, I published a couple of Tesla sales forecasts for 2021, and then I followed that up with one more at the beginning of June. With Tesla’s Q2 sales numbers now in, let’s revisit some of those forecasts.
First of all, Troy Teslike has updated his Q3 forecast by about 8,000 since mid April — to 218,970 as of June 30. I was already sitting well above his forecast, at 240,000, and I still feel alright with that forecast even though it seems that things are going a bit slower in Berlin than I previously expected. I know some CleanTechnica readers still think Tesla could hit a million sales this year, and while I’m not going that high, I’m going to remain a bit bullish on Q3 with my original 240,000 guesstimate.
Naturally, being further out, Q4 gets trickier. In that quarter, Troy has dropped his forecast since mid April rather than raised it, from 259,240 to 250,153. He may yet increase that forecast a bit since he slightly underestimated Q2 deliveries, but we’ll see. My original forecast for Q4 was 275,400. Hmm. … That creates quite a divergence from Troy, especially adding on the Q3 divergence. Nonetheless, I’m going to stick with it for now. I’m tempted to change it to about 250,000 as well, but I’m holding off and will see how the third quarter progresses.
So, in the end, I’m not changing any of the forecasts I made in early April (except that I’ve adjusted the Q2 numbers to come to the same totals as Tesla reported).
Since I’m not changing any of my overall forecasts for now, I’ll maintain my model-specific forecasts as well. But with Troy Teslike having updated numbers across the board, updated charts of all of these forecasts are included below. If anyone else wants to venture into providing forecasts as well, please do! I will then publish an update with all other forecasts included (as long as you are comprehensive in providing all of the necessary figures — and remember that we are focusing on deliveries here, not production).
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