Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?



Tesla Sales Forecasts For 2021 — Updated

In April, I published a couple of Tesla sales forecasts for 2021, and then I followed that up with one more at the beginning of June. With Tesla’s Q2 sales numbers now in, let’s revisit some of those forecasts.

First of all, Troy Teslike has updated his Q3 forecast by about 8,000 since mid April — to 218,970 as of June 30. I was already sitting well above his forecast, at 240,000, and I still feel alright with that forecast even though it seems that things are going a bit slower in Berlin than I previously expected. I know some CleanTechnica readers still think Tesla could hit a million sales this year, and while I’m not going that high, I’m going to remain a bit bullish on Q3 with my original 240,000 guesstimate.

Naturally, being further out, Q4 gets trickier. In that quarter, Troy has dropped his forecast since mid April rather than raised it, from 259,240 to 250,153. He may yet increase that forecast a bit since he slightly underestimated Q2 deliveries, but we’ll see. My original forecast for Q4 was 275,400. Hmm. … That creates quite a divergence from Troy, especially adding on the Q3 divergence. Nonetheless, I’m going to stick with it for now. I’m tempted to change it to about 250,000 as well, but I’m holding off and will see how the third quarter progresses.

So, in the end, I’m not changing any of the forecasts I made in early April (except that I’ve adjusted the Q2 numbers to come to the same totals as Tesla reported).

Since I’m not changing any of my overall forecasts for now, I’ll maintain my model-specific forecasts as well. But with Troy Teslike having updated numbers across the board, updated charts of all of these forecasts are included below. If anyone else wants to venture into providing forecasts as well, please do! I will then publish an update with all other forecasts included (as long as you are comprehensive in providing all of the necessary figures — and remember that we are focusing on deliveries here, not production).

Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality and cleantech news coverage? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.

Don't want to miss a cleantech story? Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News!

Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.
Written By

Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director, chief editor, and CEO. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao. Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA], NIO [NIO], Xpeng [XPEV], Ford [F], ChargePoint [CHPT], Amazon [AMZN], Piedmont Lithium [PLL], Lithium Americas [LAC], Albemarle Corporation [ALB], Nouveau Monde Graphite [NMGRF], Talon Metals [TLOFF], Arclight Clean Transition Corp [ACTC], and Starbucks [SBUX]. But he does not offer (explicitly or implicitly) investment advice of any sort.


#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.


Support our work today!

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports




Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Autonomous Vehicles

The short news update on a case that extends back to 2019 is that an appeals court has overturned a regional court ruling from...


The Tesla Megapack is a little more "mega" than it was before. It now is longer, wider, and taller and stores 50% more energy.


Driving my daughter to the Brisbane airport this morning, I found that quiet Teslas can surprise animals. We had a close encounter with a...


NineDot Energy, a leading developer of community-scale energy projects that creates innovative urban energy solutions that support a more resilient grid and deliver economic...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.