Sweden’s EV Sales Hit New Record In November — 38.7% Market Share

Sweden saw plugin electric vehicle sales breaking new ground in November 2020, taking 38.7% share of the passenger auto market. This compares to 14% share in November 2019. Traditional petrol and diesel combustion vehicle sales fell to 37.1% of the market, below the share of plugins for the first time. The overall market was down 12.9% year-on-year.

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It was only two months ago (September 2020) that we saw traditional (non-hybrid) combustion vehicles fall below 50% of new auto sales for the first time. The market for plugin electrics has now accelerated further, edging ahead of the combined monthly sales of non-hybrid petrol and diesel vehicles: 38.7% vs 37.1% (see above graph).

Plugins made 10,237 of the total market’s ~26,500 November sales. Plugin hybrids (PHEVs) made the larger contribution, with 28.5% of the total market, with pure battery electrics (BEVs) taking 10.2%. This is a slight shift towards BEVs compared to November 2019. The cumulative 2020 share for plugins now stands at 29.9%, up dramatically from a cumulative 11.5% at this point in 2019. The cumulative 2020 plugin sales volume stands just shy of 77,000 (of ~257,000 total auto sales).

Volkswagen ID.3. Image courtesy Volkswagen.

The months of September, October, and now November have each seen plugin share well beyond 30% of the market at 34.3%, 36.2%, and 38.7% respectively. December appears to be trending for over 40% plugin market share.

Sweden’s best selling BEVs year-to-date are led by the Tesla Model 3, although both the Volkswagen ID.3 (November’s top seller) and the Polestar 2 have quickly climbed the leaderboard, having started deliveries in Sweden only in the late summer:

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Industry association BIL Sweden warns that impending bonus-malus tax changes may dampen plugin growth in 2021, although it predicts that a share of around 30% of sales will be maintained. BIL Sweden says a share of 40% would be possible in 2021 without these pending regulatory changes.

What is your prediction for December 2020? Is a plugin share of over 40% possible for the final month? Please let us know in the comments section.