Tesla Model 3 Reaches #1 In Europe As Europe Reaches 10% EV Market Share — March 2020
The European passenger plug-in vehicle market had 84,000 registrations in March (+41% year over year/YoY), a great performance considering the effect that several lockdowns across the continent have had. Furthermore, this is while the overall auto market was crashing (-52% YoY), inflating last month’s plug-in vehicle share to an amazing 9.9% (6% fully electric vehicles/BEVs). That pulls the 2020 plug-in vehicle (PEV) share to 7.5% (4.3% for BEVs alone), well above the 3.6% result of 2019.
Will we see Europe’s plug-in auto market hit a two-digit share this year?
The big news in March is it was a peak month for the Tesla Model 3, which had 16,121 registrations. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also had a good month, returning to the podium, thanks to 3,551 units registered, while below it we have two Volkswagen Group models, with the VW e-Golf in #4 and the Audi e-tron in #5.
#1 Tesla Model 3 — The usual end-of-quarter flood came for the world’s electromobility poster child, with 16,121 deliveries, giving the sports sedan its first European Best Seller title in 2020. The rabbit out of Tesla’s hat last month was the UK, with the Californian registering a record 4,718 units there, but that wasn’t the only 4-digit performance, as 2,034 deliveries were recorded in Germany, 1,385 units in France (a new record), 1,339 in the Netherlands, and a best ever 1,084 units in Sweden.
#2 Renault Zoe — The 4,334 deliveries of March were ever so slightly below last year’s result (4,361 units a year ago), but once the market returns to normal (June?), expect the French hatchback to return to its growth path. As for individual market performances, the Renault EV continues strong in its domestic market (1,744 units) and in Germany (945 units), with the biggest surprise coming from Sweden (310 units).
#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — Last month, the Japanese SUV had its first podium position in 9 months, thanks to 3,551 registrations, incidentally also its best score in 9 months, with the Mitsubishi workhorse benefitting from its unbeatable formula (plenty of utility and space for the money) to continue running with the best BEVs. It is now the only plug-in hybrid able to do so. Looking at individual countries, the UK (1,000 units) and Germany (582 units) were its largest markets, with Norway also helping significantly, thanks to 481 registrations.
#4 Audi e-tron — Thanks to a number of impressive performances, the big Audi is becoming the talk of the town, with March resulting in 3,522 registrations. That gave the e-tron its first top 5 presence this year. And while many of them (1,681 units) went to Norway, the fact is that the e-tron has great prospects for 2020, thanks to the success of the new (and cheaper) 71 kWh battery version and the launch of the interesting Sportback version, which adds a bit of flair to the dull exterior design of the regular e-tron. But it wasn’t just Norway pulling the e-tron’s (very) heavy weight, as the Audi EV is also becoming popular in Germany (721 units, a new record) and the UK (500 units, a personal best).
#5 VW e-Golf — The evergreen German model reached 3,428 units last month, apparently immune to the long shadow of the ID.3, with Volkswagen milking everything it can from the e-Golf until its successor effectively lands (whenever that is). Regarding March, the e-Golf’s main markets were Germany (1,524 units, a new record), Norway (650 units), and the Netherlands (403 units).
Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news is the Tesla Model 3 jumping into the leadership position, having seen its deliveries grow 8% YoY this year. Despite this positive outcome, the model’s market share compared to the same period last year shrank from 16% (Q1 2019) to its current 9%, as the market has been growing at a much faster (+82%) rate.
Another example of this apparent contradiction is the #14 Kia Niro EV, that is seeing its sales grow 30% YoY this year, and yet, by this time this year, it was #11…
The other change in the top positions was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbing to #4, being by far the best selling PHEV on the table.
In the second half of the ranking, there were plenty of changes, the most relevant being the BMW i3 and VW Passat GTE climbing two positions each, to #10 and #11, respectively, but despite the BMW EV recovery, it is far from last year’s results, as the quirky hatchback a year ago was 5th and has seen its sales drop 36% YoY. Is the i3 showing its first wrinkles?
The Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins jumped to #13, thanks to 1,703 registrations, with the Swedes now looking to surpass their stablemate, the #11 XC60 PHEV, and become the brand’s best seller.
Besides what has been said before, there was other good news for the Volkswagen Group, the VW e-Up! was … up to #16, thanks to 1,480 registrations. If we add its Czech Citigo EV (1,011 units) and Spanish e-Mii (491) twins, the triplets would have 2,982 units, which would place it in #6 in last month’s ranking.
We have a new face in the top 20, with the #20 Mercedes E300e/de replacing its arch-rival BMW 530e in the table, underlining a positive month for the three-pointed star plug-ins, as the C300e/de also scored a 4-digit performance, the new A250e delivered over 700 units, and even the EQC registered a record result, with 668 units — yaaay! So, while the Mercedes EV is finally moving the needle, this is just a half good score. After all, the Tesla Model X and Jaguar i-Pace, hardly hot sellers at this moment, both scored 800-something performances last month…
Outside the top 20, we should also notice the good performances of the veteran 7th generation VW Golf GTE, with 832 registrations last month, its best score since 2018. That promises strong demand for the upcoming 8th generation Golf GTE. There are a plethora of newcomers landing with a bang as well. Here are a few of them: Opel Corsa EV (955 units) and Mini Cooper EV (1,375) on the BEV side, and Ford Kuga PHEV (911 units), Skoda Superb PHEV (1,131), and Volvo XC40 PHEV (1,254) on the hybrid side.
In the manufacturer ranking, there was a complete reshuffle, with Tesla (11%, up 5 percentage points) jumping into the leadership, immediately followed by BMW (10%, down 2 points), with Volkswagen (9%, up 1 point) and Renault (9%, down 2 points) following suit.
Not far off, we also have Volvo and Peugeot, both with 7% share each, this year being possibly the most balanced race ever in this category.
BEV D-Segment / Midsize Category
Tesla’s midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and won’t have significant competition for at least another year, as the Polestar 2 will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands the German automaker will already be happy if it gets a third of the sales of the current Model 3.
The real competition will only happen when the Tesla Model Y lands. Not only will it drain Model 3 sales, in my estimate, but it will also outsell the Model 3, so … enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.
As for the rest of the podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is (still) the silver medalist, but has seen its sales drop 27% YoY, while the #3 Mercedes EQC production ramp up is slooowly happening, so it will be a matter of time until the Mercedes SUV reaches silver.
BEV E-Segment / Full Size Category
The e-tron’s recent domination of the segment is proof that Teslas aren’t unbeatable. You just need competitive products.
Granted, the e-tron is just half competitive, as it lacks decent range, but if even half good is enough to beat both big Teslas by a mile, imagine what an efficient e-tron could have done.
Your turn to up the ante, Tesla.
One of the Audi e-tron’s trump cards is its wider price range, which helps to catch more buyers, something that the still in ramp-up mode Porsche Taycan (1,168 units) will in no doubt benefit from too, once Porsche decides to put all its usual 356 variants (Turbo S / Turbo / 4S / GTS / Sport Turismo / Cross Turismo / …) into the Taycan.
Editor’s note: I think one of the most interesting things about the European market is that there are so many models and it’s so diversified that a huge chunk of sales occur in models that aren’t even in the top 20. The two charts below, with “Others” added, demonstrate that well.
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