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The Netherlands — Fossil Cars Down 20%, Electrics Up 75%

Numbers for August passenger vehicle sales in the Netherlands were just published. The detailed numbers are not yet available, only the totals. Officially, sales are down by 16% year over year (YoY).

Numbers for August passenger vehicle sales in the Netherlands were just published. The detailed numbers are not yet available, only the totals. Officially, sales are down by 16% year over year (YoY). But when we split the numbers by energy type, the picture is different. There were only 31,430 fossil vehicles sold, compared to 39,430 last year. That is a drop of 20%.

The fully electric vehicle (BEV) market is far healthier, with a whopping ~2,800 sales in August 2019, compared to 1,579 a year earlier. That is an increase of >75%.

All of the journalists and the car industry are reporting the numbers as a single market. But I think we have to look at it as two competing markets. The BEV market is cannibalizing the fossil fuel vehicle (FFV) market. The drop in FFV sales numbers is much larger than the increase in BEV sales numbers, which is explained by the lack of BEV models and the prices still being a bit too high for those that are available. The numbers are made worse by long delivery times for most BEV models. Some BEV models have expected delivery over a year from now, or simply stopped accepting orders for the time being.

Normally, when a refreshed model is announced, or even on its way to dealers, the old model enters “sunset mode,” a period of declining sales. This should be the case for the Nissan Leaf with 40 kWh battery (a new Leaf with a 60 kWh battery is just now coming out of the factory), the Renault Zoe (a larger battery launch is coming next month), and the VW e-Golf (to be replaced by the ID.3). However, all three models have rising sales, going against all marketing wisdom and sales laws. This is not a market in decline — this is an overheated market.

A future article by Jose Pontes or by me will give more details, but I thought this was worth mentioning.

And to whet your appetite, the #1 Tesla Model 3 had ~1,200 registrations and the #2 Hyundai Kona EV had >400. Those are just two of the amazing August numbers.

 
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Written By

Grumpy old man. The best thing I did with my life was raising two kids. Only finished primary education, but when you don’t go to school, you have lots of time to read. I switched from accounting to software development and ended my career as system integrator and architect. My 2007 boss got two electric Lotus Elise cars to show policymakers the future direction of energy and transportation. And I have been looking to replace my diesel cars with electric vehicles ever since. At the end of 2019 I succeeded, I replaced my Twingo diesel for a Zoe fully electric. And putting my money where my mouth is, I have bought Tesla shares. Intend to keep them until I can trade them for a Tesla car. I added some Fastned, because driving without charging is no fun.

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