Last month, fully electric vehicles saw their registrations double year over year (YoY), pushing the overall market up +28% despite sales of every other powertrain type dropping at least 20%, which led to record fully electric vehicle (58%) and overall plug-in vehicle (69%) shares. As you already know, Tesla Model 3 deliveries went through the roof in March, with the model achieving 5,315 registrations, a new all-time record for any nameplate in Norway, whatever the fuel source.
In this context, the current 61% plug-in vehicle (PEV) share in 2019 should grow to some 70% this year, with peak months possibly reaching 80%.
The fuels mix is showing fully electric vehicles (BEVs) as the standard choice (58%), while every other fuel is falling significantly, like petrol dropping to 12% share (versus 20% a year ago) and diesel down to 10% (versus 16% last year). The time when diesel’s market share is in single digits is getting nearer by the day.
So, this is what disruption looks like!
Looking at last month’s top sellers, the Tesla Model 3 broke all possible records, with 5,315 registrations. It was followed by the #2 VW e-Golf and the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, which is currently the only plug-in hybrid (PHEV) selling in significant volumes. In fact, in March, the Outlander PHEV broke the all-time sales record for PHEVs, with 810 registrations. Maybe because it is one of the few PHEVs that does not have a strong direct competitor on the BEV field?
Off the podium, the BMW i3 had 784 deliveries, the nameplate’s best result since November 2016, while the Audi e-tron jumped into the 5th spot, with 680 deliveries, a new personal best.
| Rank | Model | March |
| 1 | Tesla Model 3 | 5,315 |
| 2 | VW e-Golf | 894 |
| 3 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 810 |
| 4 | BMW i3 | 784 |
| 5 | Audi e-Tron | 680 |
Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Tesla Model 3 benefiting from the delivery tsunami to jump into the leadership position, with the Californian already doubling registrations of the #2 VW e-Golf.
I guess Tesla can already start to prepare the best seller party for New Year’s Eve, as both trophies (model and manufacturer) should go to Palo Alto, California.
Elsewhere, a new wave of BEVs are stealing the show, with several models hitting record numbers, like the Jaguar I-PACE (registering 442 units), the Kia Niro EV (187 units), the Hyundai Kona EV (331 units), and the Audi e-tron (680), which jumped 9 spots to … #9.
In the midst of the BEV takeover (10 BEVs among the top 11), one of the few PHEVs to escape the doom and gloom of its category was the Volvo V60 PHEV, which joined the top 20, at #18, thanks to 165 registrations, the nameplate’s best result since 2017.
Finally, the Tesla Model S rejoined the top 20, in #16, profiting from its last-month-of-quarter peak. Although, at the same time last year, the Tesla flagship had delivered 814 units (676 in March), so we again have a trend of collapsing sales.
Looking at the manufacturer ranking, Tesla is the new leader (30%), now being followed by previous leaders Volkswagen and BMW (both with 11%). Hyundai (9%) is then leading a pack of brands (Nissan, Mitsubishi, Volvo) that are trying to catch up the German automakers.
While the 2019 title seems already a given in 2020, my guess is only Volkswagen could have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.
Hard times for Tesla’s competition…
| Rank | Model | March | YTD |
2019 Share
|
| 1 | Tesla Model 3 | 5,315 | 6,123 | 26% |
| 2 | VW e-Golf | 894 | 2,340 | 10% |
| 3 | BMW i3 | 784 | 1,799 | 8% |
| 3 | Nissan Leaf | 618 | 1,799 | 8% |
| 5 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 810 | 1,775 | 8% |
| 6 | Hyundai Kona EV | 331 | 1,070 | 5% |
| 7 | Hyundai Ioniq Electric | 314 | 963 | 4% |
| 8 | Jaguar I-PACE | 442 | 912 | 4% |
| 9 | Audi e-tron | 680 | 798 | 3% |
| 10 | Renault Zoe | 344 | 707 | 3% |
| 11 | Tesla Model X | 341 | 632 | 3% |
| 12 | Volvo XC60 PHEV | 228 | 631 | 3% |
| 13 | BMW 225xe Active Tourer | 92 | 363 | 2% |
| 14 | Volvo S/V90 PHEV | 187 | 357 | 2% |
| 15 | Kia Niro EV | 187 | 347 | 1% |
| 16 | Tesla Model S | 166 | 269 | 1% |
| 17 | Volvo XC90 PHEV | 114 | 268 | 1% |
| 18 | Volvo V60 PHEV | 165 | 218 | 1% |
| 19 | VW e-Up! | 51 | 212 | 1% |
| 20 | Opel Ampera-e | 65 | 175 | 1% |
| + | Others | 597 | 1,556 | 7% |
| = | TOTAL | 12,725 | 23,314 | 100% |
Model Breakdown by Fuel Source
With the PEV share at 69%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream mainstream (or take it over). Breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 9 BEVs in the top 10, and only 1 PHEV. The best selling conventional (non-plug) hybrid was only #12 (Toyota Yaris Hybrid, 248 units).
This was actually the first time the top 10 was made up of only plug-in vehicles.
The only remaining question is, for how long will the Mitsubishi resist the never-ending BEV wave?
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