Published on December 20th, 2017 | by Zachary Shahan0
Yearly Tesla Semi Revenue To = $5 Billion? $10 Billion?
December 20th, 2017 by Zachary Shahan
I had fun last week playing with some numbers in the article “Tesla Semi Price × Orders = $47 Million to $55 Million in Tesla Revenue (with Assumptions).” Since then, the orders have jumped considerably, bringing expected revenue just on known orders (410) up to $82 million based on an average price of $200,000.
One CleanTechnica reader (supported by friends, sometimes cautiously) has estimated 50,000 Tesla Semi sales per year. Given that there are 410 to 2,000+ reservations/pre-orders already, and given the fact that these are largely trial orders, and given the fact that the truck is years away from production and many potential buyers are waiting much longer to order, an estimate of 50,000 annual sales once the vehicles are tested a bit and being mass produced seems reasonable enough. To be a bit more conservative, though, I’m adding a conservative estimate at half that total in my table below.
For a little more context, 25,000–50,000 annual sales would reportedly be 15–40% of the US semi truck tractor market (though I have not been able to independently verify the size of this market, the assumption is that it’s 125,000–160,000 trucks a year). Of course, the global market is considerably bigger and Tesla will be selling globally. If you estimate that half of Tesla’s sales would be in the US, it would gain approximately 7.5% to 20% of the US market based on these assumptions.
With that long preface out of the way, one take-home point in terms of financials is that Tesla’s annual revenue if it got up to 25,000–50,000 annual sales would equal $5 billion to $10 billion a year (assuming an average purchase price of $200,000). Another take-home point is that the profits would be $1–2 billion based on a 20% gross margin or $1.25 billion to $2.5 billion based on a 25% gross margin (which is what most people seemed to be recommending). Here’s the updated table:
|Orders||Average Price||Total Revenue||Profits based on 20% Gross Margin||Profits based on 25% Gross Margin|
Of course, there are several assumptions here that could be dramatically different in real life. If you want to play with the assumptions, feel free to do so, and feel free to jump into the comments with your results and the rationale for your assumptions.