Published on July 21st, 2016 | by James Ayre0
UK’s Go Ultra Low: EVs Could Be Dominant By 2027
July 21st, 2016 by James Ayre
A recent forecast/analysis from the UK’s Go Ultra Low campaign has predicted that electric vehicles could be the dominant form of personal transportation in the UK as early as 2027.
To put that more plainly, the government and industry-backed campaign is expecting that electric vehicles sales could outnumber those of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in the UK in “only” a decade or so — making for more than 1.3 million electric vehicle registrations a year by 2027.
That prediction, if true, means that the UK is roughly on track to fulfill a government forecast that all new cars and vans be electric by the year 2040.
Notably, the forecast does rest on the assumption that vehicle sales remain level until then — UK vehicles sales are currently at an all-time high (2.6 million a year). There are a lot of possible events that could put a damper on the truth of that assumption.
Whether 1.3 million electric vehicle registrations a year by 2027 is overly ambitious, pessimistic, or precisely on point depends, of course, on many assumptions and, essentially, how fast you think we will move through the technology-adoption S curve for EVs.
The Telegraph provides some related news, concerning an analysis of vehicle purchases performed by the car-buying website Carwow. That coverage notes that those in West London are more likely to purchase an “eco-friendly” car than those in any other part of the UK. Apparently, this is closely followed by “those in Oldham, Southam, and north-west London.”
Continuing: “After the latest new car registration figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a 12.1% rise in registrations of alternatively fuelled vehicles, Carwow analysed purchases made via its website over the last three years to reveal trends in buying electric and hybrid cars. It also polled 1,276 car owners from around the UK to find out more about their attitudes towards environmentally friendly vehicles.”
And here’s more: “The data shows that 3.13% of all vehicles purchased in west London were hybrid or electric, closely followed by Oldham, with 2.83%. In the Middlesex part of west London, 2.8% of cars in Southall are electric/hybrid, with London NW (for north west) postcodes registering 2.75%. Remaining in the capital, East London had a take-up of 2.63%, then heading west again Harrow had a 2.61% take-up. Then came came Carlisle and Dundee, with 2.57% and 2.5% respectively. Narrowly missing out on the top 10 was Shrewsbury (2.45%), Leeds (2.42%) and Sunderland (2.4%).”
Interestingly, around 62% of the surveyed stated that they thought that all cars on the roads would be plug-in electrics or hybrids by 2025.
The founder of www.carwow.co.uk, James Hind, commented on the reasons for interest in the technology: “It’s really interesting to see that people are more taken with the idea of an eco-friendly car due to the lower running costs. Clearly motorists are more bothered about the impact a car will have on their bank balance than the environment.”
The head of Go Ultra Low, Poppy Welch, commented as well: “The huge interest in electric vehicles and their subsequent rapid rise in uptake has been spectacular so far, with more than 60,000 EVs registered in the past 5 years. These rises are just the start of the electric revolution as Go Ultra Low analysis suggests that electric vehicles could dominate the new car market as early as 2027.”