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Published on July 13th, 2012 | by Stanford University

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Electric Car Mass Adoption — How Soon? (Do You Think the Glass Is Half Full or Half Empty?)

July 13th, 2012 by  


 
Editor’s note: This is an article primarily focused on one side of the electric vehicle discussion that I think is worth a read. I’ve inserted my own notes throughout to try to better express what I think the actual situation is today. Basically, while I wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk’s prediction that 50% of new cars will be EVs in 20 years or less, and I think these will take off exponentially in the years to come, it’s clear that there are people in the industry with much less optimism and who may even try to limit EV growth. It’s important to know that this discussion is taking place. But it’s also important to know that a large percentage of any industry is always unready for major shifts in the industry. A shift to EVs is certainly a very major shift, and if it happens very fast, it is going to catch a lot of people off guard.

By Mark Golden

STANFORD, Calif.– Electric vehicles have a long way to go if they are to meet the high expectations of environmentalists, some investors, and the media, according to several automotive industry executives speaking at the Silicon Valley Energy Summit at Stanford University.

Sticker prices must fall, batteries must last long enough for potential buyers to get home without recharging, and charging stations need to become as common as gas stations are today for electric cars to gain a major share of the market, said representatives of Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, and consultancy Gartner.

“There are a lot of hurdles, primarily from a consumer point of view, and with infrastructure issues, too, but right now I think there is a little bit too much hype,” said Thilo Koslowski, founder of the automotive practice at Gartner.

About 22% of Americans are interested in learning more about electric cars, according to a Gartner survey, but once a realistic price is brought up, the level of interest falls to a small fraction of that, said Koslowski.

For other drivers, the barrier is driving distance.

“The Mercedes customer is very picky. They expect the best and it has to work,” said John Tillman, manager of regulatory affairs for Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America. “For the electric vehicle to take hold, the driver has to have a seamless experience.” [Editor’s note: the experience of Tesla Model S drivers seems to be pretty darn seamless! And it looks like several of them will never buy another luxury car other than Tesla’s again. Perhaps Mercedes is actually a bit threatened by that? It certainly doesn’t have anything that can compete with the Model S at the moment.]

But solving the problems of price and battery range simultaneously is a challenge, because the better batteries raise costs. Nissan North America’s west coast project manager, David Peterson, agreed that “prices are still too high,” but he expressed optimism that several manufacturers are expanding production enough that economies of scale will cut costs. Nissan expects its plant in Smyrna, Tenn. to produce 150,000 Leaf model cars a year, as well as 200,000 battery packs.

“Electric vehicles are probably underappreciated by the general public and overhyped by the media. People generally only pay attention when they are shopping for a new car, which on average is every six years,” said Peterson. “Nissan takes a long-term view on this. We know we are going to have to do a lot of work on educating the general public.” [Editor’s note: I wonder what media agencies he is referring to. Clearly, we here at CleanTechnica and some other cleantech and clean car sites are big fans, for reasons far beyond the scope of this article. However, it seems that some of the bigger agencies are aiming cannons at electric vehicles, and even just harp far too much on “range anxiety” concerns that are, frankly, overhyped (in the opposite way as Peterson is implying).]

Major Changes to Infrastructure

At least 90% of Leaf buyers have no complaints about the car itself, Peterson said, though the difficulty in finding charging stations can frustrate them. Since charging takes hours, most consumers need them two places — at home and near work — to consider buying an electric car.

Pasquale Romano, chief executive of Coulomb Technologies, owner of the “ChargePoint” network of charging stations, insisted that the infrastructure is improving rapidly. “We believe that a vehicle has to be able to tell where a charger is and that the charger has to communicate: Okay, I’m up and running,” the company’s chief executive said.

Most car GPS systems have either outdated information on charging stations or none at all. As a result, Coulomb and its competitors produce a mobile applications to get that information to drivers, at least for their individual networks. Coulomb is trying to include stations owned by other companies to make its application more useful, Romano said, but getting that data is a slow process.

Even if today’s infrastructure barriers were overcome, larger ones loom. The new generation of chargers, known as “Level 3,” can charge cars very quickly, but the power grid may not be ready to handle the big, instantaneous demand.

Meanwhile, said Koslowski, most buyers of electric cars keep a traditional gasoline-powered vehicle as their “backup car” for when they have trips that exceed their electric car’s range. That cost, he said, is a deal breaker for most Americans.

Stanford University’s Precourt Energy Efficiency Center hosts the annual Silicon Valley Energy Summit, which covers the best practices, technological advances and policy developments related to more sustainable energy use.

(Mark Golden works in communications at the Precourt Energy Efficiency Center at Stanford University.)

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Media Contact: Mark Golden, (650) 724-1629, mark.golden@stanford.edu 
 

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About the Author

-- Mark Golden works in communications for Stanford University, writing on the university's broad range of energy research. Coverage spans more than 200 faculty members, as well as dozens of independent labs and academic departments from fundamental sciences to law.



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