As the years transition, lists of EVs coming to market in 2019 are omnipresent. But there is a problem with those lists. First, they are mainly for the USA market, and second, the availability of those new models is not great — only in California or a handful of “zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) states,” or some other very limited supply formula.
Forecasting when sales of electric vehicles will go mainstream is not as simple as producing a hockey-stick chart of up and to the right. While many observers believe that we will wake up one day and see electric vehicle (EV) sales suddenly take off, a sudden and huge explosion in sales is probably unlikely. Electric vehicles are clearly on the way to mass adoption, but there are potentially dozens of factors that could either speed up or delay sales growth of EVs.
The China-based auto and battery manufacturer BYD is expecting that China’s shift to so-called “new energy vehicles” — battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc. — will be completed by the year 2030, according to recent reports.
Most of you reading this are in agreement: electric vehicles will upend the conventional vehicle industry within the next 50 10–20 years. The pollution industry in the world of transport will be destroyed. Gasmobiles stinking up cities, garages, lungs, hearts, and minds will be retiring to scrapyards and history books. But the endgame is sort of boring — yes, awesome, but boring since it is the end of it all.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance has a new prediction about electric cars — they will account for more than half of all new car sales globally by 2040 and account for a third of all light duty vehicles on the road. The latest report was put together by an advanced team of BNEF analysts and takes several factors into account. Its predictions are significantly more optimistic than the last BNEF report just one year ago, which projected sales of electric cars would reach 35% of the market by 2040.
