As the Tesla Model 3 gains significant production volume, with most of the 2018 deliveries going to US customers, other players in the US small and midsize luxury car segment look set to see their sales halved in Q3 and Q4.
As I discussed yesterday in a couple of pieces, Tesla Model 3 sales are beginning to look very good compared to gas cars in its class, and they should even give the top selling passenger cars in the United States a run for their money by summertime. I’m probably going to start doing monthly reports on those sales, but that doesn’t mean I’ll stop doing the super fun US electric car sales reports.
In the middle of last month, I published an article about expected Tesla Model 3 sales versus gas car sales in its class. To be clear, the estimates were for all models (not just the Tesla Model 3), with gas car estimates based on April 2017 sales and recent trends. It turned out that estimates for a few of the models were quite off — sometimes high, sometimes low. The good news is that makes this update all the more interesting.
The BMW iX3 electric concept car was finally unveiled at the Beijing Motor Show (Auto China 2018) last week. The long touted prototype of BMW’s first electric SUV was accompanied at the show by the BMW i Vision Dynamics four door concept, previously unveiled at the 2017 Frankfurt Motor Show and precursor of BMW’s future mid-size electric saloon (a Tesla Model 3 competitor). We now have an almost production-ready SUV prototype and a sedan concept indicating two new electric models coming to market over the next two to four years. Will this be enough to compete with Tesla’s skyrocketing growth and German rivals’ electrification plans in an increasingly crowded EV space?
At the beginning of the month, Tesla noted that it had gotten Model 3 production up to 2,000 cars a week at the end of March. More recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told CBS that Tesla had produced 2,070 Model 3s in the week leading up to April 10. If you assume Tesla stalls at approximately 2,000 cars a week for the whole month, that’s still over 8,000 Model 3 electric super-sedans produced in April.
BMW will not begin mass production of plug-in electric vehicles until at least 2020, because the company’s current tech won’t allow for the company to generate a high enough profit margin to do so, the firm’s CEO has been quoted as saying.
BMW told the press in Geneva this week that an i4 sedan based on the 4 Series GT will go on sale by 2020, with a larger i5 sedan following a year later.
It has been said repeatedly — the auto company likely to be most hurt by the Tesla Model 3 is BMW. BMW is known for sporty. Tesla does sporty better. BMW is known for innovative. Tesla does innovative better. BMW is known for premium. Tesla does premium better.
I compared Tesla Model 3 specs to the specs of its top gasoline-powered competitors a few weeks ago, but I didn’t provide comprehensive sales data at that time and several people requested such information. I was curious as well, so I dug it up and turned it into a couple of charts (below). Rather than just set you free with the data here, I thought I’d have a little fun here. Below is my take on why someone would buy each of these gasoline-chugging models in 2017 or 2018.
Now that we have several official specs for the Tesla Model 3, I wanted to do a thorough update of how the Model 3 competes against comparably priced offerings from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Toyota, Acura, and Jaguar. Last week, I commented at length about subjective features of the Model 3 that I think will make it a much more attractive offer for drivers and passengers — openness, torque, serenity, and 21st century controls. I honestly think these are the core factors (along with the convenience of home charging) that will lead to the Model 3 dominating its market segment. However, I know many people just want to see the numbers and I am sometimes in search of specific numbers for various comparisons, so this article is primarily aimed at providing several key specs across a few variations of the Model 3, the Tesla Model S, and 22 gas-powered competitors.
