Legacy forms of electrical generation are going to diminish radically in significance. Total energy requirements are going to halve. Renewable generation will dominate. Grids will become even more important. Storage will be everywhere.
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China’s coal demand growth is almost over. Its coal burning remains very high, but it’s not accelerating as the narrative suggests, and it will be declining sooner than expected.
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The result of all these puts and takes is a lower demand in the end than I’d originally projected for 2100. My original projection was around 90 million tons, now it’s slightly under 80 million tons.
Like the tiny corkscrew, blade, and toothpick on the Swiss Army knife, hydrogen just isn’t the go-to molecule if there are alternatives, and there are almost always alternatives. And in hydrogen’s case, a lot of the current use cases are going to diminish due to economic and climate imperatives, not grow.
Land Rovers and Range Rovers occupy the same place that massive pickup trucks do in North American car culture. They are vastly outsized, overpowered, heavy machines which pretend to be working vehicles, but are remarkably often driven in cities to pick up lattes.
Maerk’s dual-fuel ships, when they run on methanol at all, will be very unlikely to be burning green methanol directly, at least not for a long time.
IKEA will figure it out, just as everyone who goes down this pathway does. It’s remarkable that people keep making the mistake when it’s so obviously a mistake with tiny amounts of number crunching and the slightest awareness of battery energy density improvements.
Half of the world’s economy has already reached peak gasoline and diesel demand while electric vehicle deliveries in every segment are shooting through the roof.
