EVs Take 98.4% Share In Norway – BEV Fleet Overtakes Diesel

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November saw plugin EVs take 98.4% share in Norway, up from 94.9% year on year. BEVs alone took 97.6% share. Overall auto volume was 19,889 units, up some 70% YoY. The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling vehicle in November.

November’s auto market saw combined EVs take 98.4% share in Norway, comprising 97.6% full electrics (BEVs) and 0.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These compare with YoY figures of 94.9% combined, 93.6% BEV and 1.3% PHEV.

The residual powertrain shares in November were 0.8% PHEV, 0.8% HEV, 0.7% diesel, and 0.1% petrol. Since the market resettled after the new auto tax policies were introduced back in April, the cumulative share of residual powertrains has been:

PHEV  – 0.93%
Diesel – 0.83%
HEV    – 0.63%
Petrol – 0.21%

This is somewhat rational and expected, and as new BEV models reach into more niches, at increasingly affordable price points, these already small residuals will further erode.

As mentioned in last month’s report, tighter VAT rules arriving from January 1st on higher priced BEVs – priced over 300,000 NOK or €25,300 – will lead to a pull-forward of these models in December, and a hangover for them in Q1 2026. We will watch for this in the sales data.

Best-Selling Models

The Tesla Model Y was again the best-seller in November, with 3,645 units. The Tesla Model 3 came in second with 2,561 units. This gave Tesla more volume than the next 12 models combined, a remarkable result.

In third was the Volkswagen ID.4, with 848 units, only fractionally ahead of the Volvo EX40 (828 units).

There were no great surprises in the top 20. Two good value Chinese made cars, the Mazda 6E, and the Xpeng G9, both saw strong volumes, and featured in the chart. The Xpeng G9 saw its second highest ever volumes (266 units), almost at the level of its “big splash” month of early deliveries back in November 2023 (298 units).

There were 7 (yes seven) new debutant BEV models in November, though few of these are destined to be high volume models. The Suzuki Vitara compact SUV launched with 77 units, as did its rebadged twin cousin, the Toyota Urban Cruiser (6 units). Neither have outstanding efficiency or specifications, but brand loyalists may be tempted, and future generations of these vehicles should get better.

The Deepal brand launched the S05 SUV, a slightly smaller option than its existing S07 (4620 mm vs 4750 mm). Since the S07 has only sold in very low numbers (a total of 42 units) since launching in July, don’t expect big waves from the S05 either, though it will probably outsell its sibling.

The Fiat Grande Panda has now launched in Norway (8 initial units), several months after launching in other European markets. Stellantis is not pushing BEVs with much enthusiasm in Norway, so we can’t expect great volumes from this model either.  Likewise, the new Citroen e-C5 (2 initial units) will not see high volumes in Norway.

The new Lucid Gravity saw one registration in November. Unless Lucid can sort out its notorious software issues, they will not find acceptance in this highly mature BEV market. Perhaps this single unit is destined for extensive winter testing in Norway by one of Lucid’s competitors?

Perhaps the new model with decent potential is the new MG S6, a D-segment SUV (4708 mm). Its older sibling the MG S5 has already matured into a regular member of the top 20 best-sellers, and there’s a chance that the new S6 will find similar success. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Let’s take a look at the latest trailing-3-month rankings:

The Tesla Model Y remains strongly dominant in Norway, and its sibling the Model 3 is also very popular. All other models are “also rans” by comparison.

The biggest climber since 3 months prior was the Mazda 6e, which now stands in 20th, from almost-absent before. The 6e is essentially a rebadged version of the Deepal L07 (from Changan, Mazda’s manufacturing partner in China). It is a large semi-premium sedan, competing with the Volkswagen ID.7, and is relatively good value.

Depending on whether its recent volume can be sustained, we may see the Xpeng G9 enter the top 20 in the coming few months. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Fleet update

The Norwegian OFV noted that the size of the BEV fleet has now overtaken that of diesels to become the plurality powertrain in the passenger car fleet. As of the end of November, BEVs comprised 31.78% of the fleet, while diesels comprised 31.76%.

Petrol share (now down to 23.9%) was already surpassed by BEVs a couple of years ago, and PHEVs and HEVs have already peaked at 7.18% and 5.38% respectively.  I will have the updated fleet graphs in the end-of-year report next month.

Outlook

With the tighter VAT rules arriving on January 1st, we will watch for the slight discontinuity in sales of some higher end models over the coming months.  Norway’s auto volume (now almost all BEVs) is up 25% year to date, which will further accelerate the fleet turnover rate.

Norway’s macroeconomic data is habitually erratic due to the large size of public spending, and the overweight impact that (variable price) fossil-fuel sales have on the national pocketbook. Initial GDP data from Q2 showed a downward swing to negative 2.1% YoY, but the figures for Q2 have since been softened to negative 0.6%, and Q3’s results swung back to positive 2.1% YoY. Inflation was down to 3% (latest data), and interest rates remained flat at 4%. Manufacturing PMI jumped up to 53 points in November, from 48.2 in October.

What are your thoughts on Norway’s transition? What models do you expect to do well in the coming months, and will consumers in Norway ever start to cool on Tesla, as they have in some other European markets? Please jump into the discussion below to share your ideas.