Solar, Swaps, & Startups: Africa’s Unique Path To Electric Transport

Africa’s transport landscape starts from a very different baseline than the regions leading the global electric vehicle transition. Vehicle ownership per capita is low in most countries, and in many places motorcycles, scooters, and informal public transport dominate the movement of people and goods. In 2015, the continental average for passenger car ownership was about 38 vehicles per 1,000 people, far below the global average. A few countries, such as Libya, South Africa, and Algeria, stand out with higher rates, while the majority of Sub-Saharan states remain well under 50. This means the conversation about electrification in Africa is not just about replacing a mature internal combustion fleet but about shaping the growth curve of mobility from the start.

This is part of a series on global EV tipping points, starting with a piece defining key technology diffusion and adoption models, followed by pieces exploring what 5% to 15%, 15% to 40% and 40% to 80% penetrations look like,  then proceeding through key markets including Europe, China, India and the United States.

The mix of vehicles on African roads is heavily skewed toward two- and three-wheelers, especially in rural and peri-urban areas. Motorcycles are not just personal transport but the backbone of taxi and goods delivery services. In East Africa, the boda-boda motorcycle taxi industry moves millions of passengers daily. In West Africa, okadas play the same role. Three-wheeled tuk-tuks and minibuses form the core of informal public transport in many cities, carrying the majority of daily commuters. This dependence on smaller, cheaper, and more versatile vehicles means that electrification pathways will look different from those in car-dominated markets.

Vehicle access is highly urban-centric. The vast majority of registered vehicles in most countries operate in and around major cities, where incomes are higher, road infrastructure is better, and there is at least some access to electricity. Rural areas rely more on motorcycles, bicycles, and walking, and where motor vehicles are used, they are often older, second-hand imports. Countries also vary widely in their readiness for electrification. Morocco, South Africa, Kenya, and Rwanda have either local manufacturing capacity, supportive policy frameworks, or active startup ecosystems experimenting with electric mobility. Others, particularly in Central and parts of West Africa, have extremely low ownership rates, weak power infrastructure, and minimal policy focus on the transport sector.

Electricity supply is a defining constraint for vehicle electrification. Around 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, and even in connected areas, supply is often unreliable. Outages lasting hours or days are common in countries like Nigeria and South Africa, and many households and businesses depend on diesel generators. At the same time, the growth of solar mini-grids and off-grid solutions offers an alternative path. Hundreds of small solar-powered systems are being deployed each year in villages and towns, often with battery storage. For electric two- and three-wheelers, which have smaller energy demands and can be charged from modest power systems, this is a viable route to adoption without waiting for the national grid to expand.

Africa produces less than 1% of the world’s new vehicles. South Africa is the largest manufacturing hub, assembling vehicles for brands like Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, and Ford. Morocco has become a key production base for Renault and Stellantis. There are smaller assembly plants in countries like Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana, often fed by imported kits.

80% to 90% of the continent’s vehicle fleet in many markets consists of used imports from Europe, Japan, and North America. These vehicles are cheaper but older and less efficient, and they compete directly with new electric models on price. Unless affluent countries require that used ICE vehicles are scrapped and African import regulations change, the steady influx of second-hand ICE vehicles will slow the adoption of new EVs.

Electric car adoption is starting from a near-zero base. In 2024, fewer than 1% of new cars sold in Africa were electric, with Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa leading in absolute numbers. South Africa’s EV market is still under 0.5% of new sales. The most dynamic activity is in the electric two-wheeler segment. Startups in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Nigeria, and elsewhere are building and selling electric motorcycles, often paired with battery-swapping networks. This model suits commercial riders who can save on fuel and maintenance while avoiding long charging times. Electric buses are also being trialed in cities like Nairobi, Kigali, and Cape Town, often with donor or private-sector support.

Affordability is a central challenge. Even with falling battery prices, electric cars remain beyond the reach of most African consumers. Motorcycles are more accessible but still cost more upfront than petrol equivalents. Financing is limited, though mobile money and pay-as-you-go models are emerging to spread costs over time. Charging infrastructure is sparse outside of a few major cities, and there is a shortage of technicians trained to maintain electric drivetrains and high-voltage systems. Policy support is uneven. A handful of governments offer tax breaks, import duty reductions, or outright ICE import bans, as Ethiopia has done. Most have yet to set clear EV targets or align energy and transport policies.

There are clear opportunities to leapfrog. Africa’s low baseline of vehicle ownership means there is less entrenched ICE infrastructure to dismantle. As costs fall and business models mature, new buyers could enter the market directly into electric mobility, particularly for two- and three-wheelers. Renewable energy potential is vast, and in some countries like Kenya, the grid is already predominantly green, making EVs cleaner from the start. The economic case for reducing fuel imports is strong, as many countries spend large portions of their foreign exchange reserves on petroleum.

The most likely leapfrog scenarios involve electric motorcycles, three-wheelers, and certain segments of public transport. These are easier to electrify, cheaper to purchase, and offer faster payback in fuel savings. Passenger car electrification will lag but could accelerate once affordable new or used EVs become available, especially after 2030 when global markets phase out ICE sales and used EVs begin entering export flows. Tipping points could arrive when EVs reach purchase price parity without subsidies, when battery-swapping networks for commercial fleets are widespread, or when off-grid solar charging becomes common in both urban and rural contexts.

By 2040, it is plausible that electric two-wheelers could dominate new sales in many African cities, with large shares of public bus fleets also electric in progressive markets. Electric cars might still be a minority of new sales continent-wide, but in leading countries they could be approaching parity with ICE models. The trajectory will not be uniform. Some nations will leap ahead due to policy, investment, and market readiness, while others will remain reliant on imported ICE vehicles well into the 2040s. Africa’s transition will be shaped as much by its energy transformation as by its transport needs, and the interplay between the two will determine whether the continent can make a decisive move toward cleaner, more efficient mobility.