Burgers Bending Your Budget? Blame It On Climate Change

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Over the last year or so, you may have felt the sting of higher prices as you ordered your favorite burgers at your local restaurant or when you’ve been stocking up at the grocery store. You’re not imagining it: burgers and other red meats cost more today than in years past. The reason why is part of an interlocking network of environmental factors that have prompted a financial turnabout for the agriculture industry.

To get a fuller picture as to why burgers cost more today than ever, we need to take a deep dive into climate change, industrial agriculture, and economic strategies. Here’s a primer to help out.

What’s in a cow’s diet? Cows today eat a high-fiber diet of grass and hay. They can eat a lot of grass and hay because their 4-chamber stomach stores it.

What’s the connection between a cow’s diet and climate change? Cows digest the food stored in their stomach by re-chewing it in their mouth. They also burp out methane. Those burps are a type of pollution.

Why is methane so bad? Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas. It is the second-largest contributor to climate warming after carbon dioxide (CO2).

What’s the problem with greenhouse gases? As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history. Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of nature. This poses many risks to human beings and all other forms of life on Earth.

Is methane the only greenhouse gas that damages the Earth? Cow burps are just one cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.

What’s the connection between cows and a warming world? Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and a lead reviewer for the IPCC, said methane reductions were probably the only way of staving off temperature rises of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which extreme weather will increase and “tipping points” could be reached. “Cutting methane is the biggest opportunity to slow warming between now and 2040,” Zaelke explains.

What does all this mean for you and your Cheeseburgers in Paradise? A warming planet with intensifying extreme weather is affecting the price of your favorite red meats. Unprecedented conditions are set to become increasingly common across the world, say the authors of a 2025 study. They outline how “new records for extreme conditions will continue to be set, further from those to which agricultural production and economic systems are currently adapted.”

What does drought mean for cattle ranchers? Climate change complicates the drought conditions, with ranchers experiencing periods of intense rainfall followed by months of no rain. More intense droughts have led to less pasture land, forcing some ranchers to spend more on feed. One rancher in Nebraska said she sourced feed from more than 500 miles away.

What’s the projection for drought in future years? US climate projections suggest drought conditions may become more frequent and intense. That means the cost of beef in your grocery or neighborhood restaurant will likely continue to rise. Climate change is making catastrophic, multiyear “megadroughts” much worse in the US and around the world.

Does less rain mean fewer cattle for human consumption? Yes. Ranchers have been sending their animals to the slaughterhouse earlier, cutting back herds even as people in the US eat more beef. There were about 94.2 million cattle and calves in the US as of July 1, the lowest mid-year count on record in data going back to 1973

What’s the relationship of smaller herds to burger prices? Fewer cattle to slaughter is sending prices to record highs. Average ground beef prices in city supermarkets surpassed $6 a pound in June, while the cost of uncooked beef steaks approached $11.50 a pound. Those levels are the highest in a decade.

Are there other factors contributing to the high cost of burgers? Sure. Besides drought, higher interest rates and greater costs for inputs ranging from the cattle themselves to feed and equipment are hitting ranchers’ profitability, which is passed along to consumers.

Are rising beef prices new in 2025? Since 2020, studies have shown that climate change is driving up the costs of food, insurance, and other basic goods. Climate impacts on economic productivity indicate that climate change may increasingly threaten price stability. The costs to buy burgers, as a result, isn’t going to fall at least for the next few years.

Is there a term to capture these increasing consumer costs? The concerning new phenomena is being called “climate inflation.” Climate-related spikes in food prices could lead to a cascading series of social consequences — nutritional, economic, and political.

Beyond beef, will climate inflation affect other goods and services in the years to come? Unprecedented heat, droughts, and extreme weather have cost homeowners, shareholders, corporations, and taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars that could become tens of trillions in the coming decades.

What changes are expected for the food and agriculture industry in the years to come? According to BloombergNEF, under one transition scenario, the environmental impacts of the farming and food system are redressed through emergent technology, sustainable land practices, policy and targeted investment. In another scenario, failure to act leads to a food system transformed by its vulnerabilities to changing weather and rainfall patterns.

What’s the best way to reduce cattle methane and help the planet — right now? The main human-caused emissions are methane, CO2, nitrogen dioxide (N2O), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). These emissions are significantly influenced by the production and consumption of dairy and meat products. For this reason, the best solution is to convert to a plant-based diet whenever possible. Earth.org outlines how plant-based food production is, overall, less polluting than meat production. For example, one kilogram of peas produces one kilogram of greenhouse gases (GHG), whereas the same quantity of beef emits nearly 6kg of GHG.

Are major restaurants cutting back on their burger and prime cut options? Right now the answer is “no.” Take the award-winning Eleven Madison Park. The Manhattan restaurant went to a totally vegan menu nearly five years ago, but now is reincorporating meat into its menu. Chef Daniel Humm told the New York Times that “the best way to continue to champion plant-based cooking is to let everyone participate around the table.” The revamped menu, which begins October 14, will still offer seven to nine courses for $365 and will largely be prepared without animal products. Then again, the new menu will open up audiences to plant-focused eating options, which is a pathway toward broader adoption of healthy diets for humans and the planet.