US Summer Gasoline Prices Could Increase from Higher Refining Costs

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Average monthly prices for regular-grade retail gasoline in the United States could increase by more than 10 cents per gallon (gal) if refinery output is lower than expected, according to an analysis we published on May 14.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), May 2024

In our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which serves as the Base case for our new analysis, we forecast summer regular retail gasoline prices will average about $3.70/gal.

The new analysis, a Perspectives supplement to our May STEO, presents a High Refining Cost scenario, which examines:

  • The potential effects of lower gasoline yields, based on limited production of high-octane gasoline blend components
  • The impact of widening differences between retail prices on the East and West Coasts and the Gulf Coast
  • The influence of higher regional retail gasoline prices, increased gasoline imports, and slightly less gasoline consumption

Principal contributors: Jeff Barron, Kevin Hack

First published on Today in Energy.


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US Energy Information Administration

The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

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