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Tesla Monthly Sales In Europe Evening Out — Don’t Be Fooled

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said for years that Tesla needs to “unwind” its delivery wave. It has always had an issue of delivering (aka selling) a lot more vehicles in the 3rd month of a quarter. This has especially been the case on continents where Tesla hasn’t had factories. What has happened recently is Tesla has ramped up production at its European gigafactory in Germany. That has finally allowed Tesla to even out its deliveries more from month to month in Europe.

But let’s turn to Tesla sales tracker Troy Teslike for a better view at what is happening in Europe, and how to avoid being fooled.

As you can see in the second tweet above, Troy wrote, “In Europe, supply in months 1 and 2 of the quarter used to be low. Therefore sales were low. As supply increased, sales in month 1+2 started to represent a larger percentage of the quarter. This trend will increase sharply in Q2. I expect Apr+May to represent around 50% of Q2.”

A couple of days later, June 21, he provided an update. As you can see in this first tweet in a 3-tweet thread, even if Tesla had the same number of sales quarter to quarter, the 3rd month of the quarter would have lower sales than before, as more of the quarter’s sales would be sent to customers in the 1st and 2nd quarters.

Troy’s concern, and what he advises against, is making the wrong, overly bullish conclusion that Tesla sales are skyrocketing due to growing sales in the first two months of the quarter. Don’t expect a similar increase year over year in the third month. In fact, expect a decline. And, similarly, if noticing a decline year over year in the third month of a quarter, don’t freak out — this is Tesla finally unwinding that dreaded delivery wave!

Related: Tesla Model Y Seeing Twice As Many Sales As Tesla Model 3 — How Will This Change?

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Tesla Sales in 2023, 2024, and 2030

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Written By

Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director, chief editor, and CEO. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao. Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA], NIO [NIO], Xpeng [XPEV], Ford [F], ChargePoint [CHPT], Amazon [AMZN], Piedmont Lithium [PLL], Lithium Americas [LAC], Albemarle Corporation [ALB], Nouveau Monde Graphite [NMGRF], Talon Metals [TLOFF], Arclight Clean Transition Corp [ACTC], and Starbucks [SBUX]. But he does not offer (explicitly or implicitly) investment advice of any sort.


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