China & USA #1 And #2 In Solar PV Deployment, But Mediocre In Terms Of Percentage Of Electricity From Solar

June 6, 20231 year ago Zachary Shahan 0 Comments

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In terms of absolute scale, China and the USA have long been leaders in the growth of solar power. And, really, China stands alone at the top. It had deployed 462 gigawatts of solar PV by the end of 2022, which was 37.5% of the whole world’s total, 1,233 gigawatts. In terms of annual deployment, it’s even more dominant. With 96.6 gigawatts of solar deployed last year, China accounted for 42% of the world’s total deployment, which was 231 gigawatts.

That makes headlines, and for good reason. That level of deployment builds up the supply chain, supportive industries, manufacturing capacity, and more investment.

However, China and the US are the two largest economies in the world, so one would expect them to be the two largest solar economies. What I’ve always loved to explore is solar deployment on a relative basis — relative to the overall power capacity market, electricity generation, GDP, or other factors. (It’s the same kind of thing we do for electric vehicle — looking at electric vehicle sales relative to the overall auto market.) In this regard, China and the US are a bit mediocre, as recent reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicate.

“The United States, despite being a leading PV market, is below the global average and other leading markets in terms of PV generation as a percentage of total country electricity generation, with 5%,” NREL writes. The global average is estimated to be 6% for 2022. China, as you can see, is just barely above the global average.

Of course, within the US, there is wide variation in policy by state, and thus wide variation in results. NREL points out that California’s solar penetration of its electricity market was 28% — more than any country in the world. Notably, if it was a country, California would be the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world.

The country leaders, as you can see in the chart above, were Spain, Greece, Chile, the Netherlands, and Australia, all five with solar accounting for 15% to 20% of their total electricity production.

With all of that said, and giving those solar leaders some rightful praise, in terms of absolute output and growth, China is a stunning solar beast to behold. “China’s annual PV installations grew 93% y/y in 2022, representing 44% of total global demand, with the majority coming from distributed PV,” NREL notes. That figure of 93% year-over-year growth is a stunning result, especially when you consider the large scale the country had already achieved the year before.

Overall, the general trend is that solar power keeps growing, rapidly.