One of our readers recently pointed out that the Tesla Model 3 has seemingly surpassed 1 million cumulative sales (deliveries)*. Indeed, looking at my own long-term records of Tesla sales, at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021, the Model 3 had reached 1,031,588 worldwide deliveries.
That makes the Model 3 the first electric car to pass 1 million cumulative sales.
Note that these are not 100% official figures, since Tesla reports Model 3 and Model Y deliveries combined. However, official registration data for the Model 3 and Model Y from dozens of countries do help to inform my quarterly figures. I estimate that 225,000 Model 3s were delivered in the first half of 2021, and the 1-million-vehicle crossover point almost certainly came in June.
The Tesla Model Y, meanwhile, just passed 250,000 cumulative sales in July, and my forecast has it getting slightly past 500,000 at the end of the year. The Model S has passed 300,000 cumulative sales, but clearly isn’t growing fast enough to fend off the Model Y.
Our reader notes that the Nissan LEAF passed 500,000 cumulative sales in December 2020. It is the only electric car aside from the Model 3 to have done so. Will the LEAF ever get to 1 million sales?
Aside from the Model 3, the Model Y, and potentially the Nissan LEAF, which electric models are most likely to surpass a million sales one day?
*Update: Taylor Marks made the point under an article, and I don’t recall if I planned to write about the news at that point, but what got me to remember and return to this is another reader following up via our contact form and sending more data. Thanks to both of them for bringing this to my attention and making the article happen!