Sandy Munro shared his 2030 EV prediction on YouTube a year ago. In recent days, he pointed out that President Biden’s EV push follows what Munro has been saying about the 50% point on EVs. Here’s a Munro clip from September 2020 for context:
In that clip, Munro said, “I think that the race is on and I think that we need to get as fast as we can to an EV 51%–41% ICE [ration]. I think the manufacturing takeover is not so far down the road and I can basically tell you what my prediction is. Again, I believe in 10 years you’re gonna look at 49% of the products that are built are gonna be ICE. And EVs and HVs, I think, are gonna be 51%.”
Munro followed this clip with another in January 2021. In this video, he had John McElroy from Autoline TV, Gary Vasilash with Gardner Business Media, and Chase Drum with Grid Connections. Munro told the gentlemen, “I think, and I’ve published this all over the place, so I’m gonna stick with 2030. But that’s where the crossover point is going to be.”
Vasilash added that perhaps it should be moved up to 2028 and Munro agreed. “I think that’s the time when more than 50% of the cars/automobiles sold will be EVs.” Regarding his forecasts and President Biden’s announcements last week, he stated:
“Now, I said that in 2019. And I said it again in 2020. And then in 2021, I said that I think I’m going to have to move it up — it’s going to have to be 2028. I’m going to tell you right now, boys and girls, 2028 is going to have to be the correct number. Otherwise, there won’t be an OEM in North America. Because the rest of the world is moving much, much faster than we are here.
“Regardless of whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican or an Independent or whatever, that news coming out of the president is going to affect a lot of folks — a lot of folks that were sleeping or laughing — and you’ll see little clips on how people reacted when I did say 2030 and 2028. You’ll see a few people laughing. But I will tell you that people stopped reporting on me and they claimed it was because I was a micro-influencer or some damn thing.
“But in actuality, it was because of the radical change that would have to happen in order for us to get into 50% EVs in a really short period of time. I think that this is a good move for the United States. It may not be wonderfully accepted by the Luddites on the planet, but if we don’t move quickly, we will lose tremendously to the Chinese and especially to the Europeans. They are definitely on the move.”
Now, if only Munro knew the lotto numbers. Seriously, though, it’s not about being psychic — he is very knowledgeable on the technology, which enables him to predict the trends with confidence. And what I find disturbing is that part where he said that “they stopped reporting” on him because they didn’t like his message. No, he didn’t say they didn’t like his message, but I’m just calling it as I see it. They didn’t like what he had to say. It was too radical and it didn’t fit any narratives that were being pushed.
I also want to quickly add that if it wasn’t for an American automaker that specializes in 100% electric vehicles (along with energy and solar), an automaker pushing legacy automakers to make EVs in order to compete, this race wouldn’t even be happening. We as a nation should be proud of Tesla’s achievements and support them.
President Biden, in his own way, is supporting Tesla and its mission by pushing the crossover to 2030. However, for America to succeed in this market, 2030 will be too late for such a soft target. Hopefully Rivian, Lucid, and Bollinger will also have vehicles being produced and delivered by then — we know their plans, but plans and reality sometimes don’t line up.
One thing I’ve said before is that if GM, Ford, and legacy auto could “beat Tesla,” they would have done so already. Instead, they got left behind by its quick innovation. While Europe and China have fast-moving automakers getting on board with EVs due to policies in those places, we have Tesla and its natural innovation. But we need more. We need GM and Ford to step up and be about it. Walk the walk.