I have been a fan of Tony Seba for some time. I have watched his presentations on YouTube, read his book (Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation, 2014) and devoured his reports. His latest one tends to be a compilation of his previous dissertations on disruptions and the speed with which they occur. It combines his insights on three areas and the way they can be combined to help solve the crisis in which we find ourselves. The technology exists; the only problem is our mindset. Here is the executive summary:
“Technology disruptions already underway in the energy, transportation, and food sectors have extraordinary implications for climate change. These three disruptions alone, driven by just eight technologies, can directly eliminate over 90% of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide within 15 years. Market forces can be leveraged to drive the bulk of global GHG emissions mitigation because the technologies required are either already commercially available and competitive today, or can be deployed to market before 2025 with the right societal choices. The same technologies will also make the cost of carbon withdrawal affordable, meaning that moon shot breakthrough technologies are not required to solve the ‘Last Carbon Problem’ and go beyond net zero from 2035 onwards. Our previous research has shown that disruptions of the energy, transportation, and food sectors are inevitable. Solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) will disrupt coal, oil, and gas. Autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs) providing transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) will disrupt internal combustion engines and private vehicle ownership. And precision fermentation and cellular agriculture (PFCA) will disrupt meat, milk, and other animal products. The three disruptions are already unfolding simultaneously, and their implications for climate change are profound. Yet it will be up to us to decide whether or not we deploy these technologies worldwide rapidly enough to avoid dangerous climate change.”
He adds: “Although disruptions of the energy, transportation, and food sectors are inevitable for purely economic reasons, it is possible to either accelerate or delay the disruptions and their associated emissions mitigation with good or bad choices.”
I would urge everybody to at least skim through it. It is not as radical as it sounds. And if it is, then maybe that’s what we need at the moment. 2050 is too late.
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