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Tesla Expects High Demand in the USA in Q3

Tesla is increasing the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y in the USA again. Tesla is also not exporting any Model 3 or Model Y from Fremont to Europe. All Fremont exports are going to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Europe receives its Tesla’s exclusively from Shanghai.

That markets close to Shanghai are supplied from Fremont is likely a political issue. Not all China’s neighbors are in love with China. Supplying Europe from Shanghai is more likely a production issue. It would place too big a strain on the availability of vehicles for the North American market. Expected delivery is often in September, and could flip to October soon. It is possible that Tesla will commission a few shipments from Fremont to Europe later in the quarter. But it is probably better to keep shipping from Shanghai because the Made in China models resemble more closely the products that will come out of Giga Berlin.

The reason that Tesla has decided to supply Europe only or mainly from Shanghai is likely the high demand in its home market. Tesla fans like me should be happy about this demand, but also realize that Tesla market share in the USA BEV market is not normal and not healthy. It shows that other carmakers, like Hyundai, VW, Audi, Porsche, Kia, Jaguar, Volvo, and Mercedes, still have insufficient access to the market. They all have products that should sell well in this market. They have a sales channel big enough to sell at least 10 times the numbers they are selling now.

Tesla really needs Giga Texas to start production before the Biden plan to restore incentives becomes law. That will create a rush on Tesla, with even better margins for the near future.

This is great for shareholders, but not so great for the transition. We need a wide pallet of models and versions to choose from.

 
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Written By

Grumpy old man. The best thing I did with my life was raising two kids. Only finished primary education, but when you don’t go to school, you have lots of time to read. I switched from accounting to software development and ended my career as system integrator and architect. My 2007 boss got two electric Lotus Elise cars to show policymakers the future direction of energy and transportation. And I have been looking to replace my diesel cars with electric vehicles ever since. At the end of 2019 I succeeded, I replaced my Twingo diesel for a Zoe fully electric. And putting my money where my mouth is, I have bought Tesla shares. Intend to keep them until I can trade them for a Tesla car. I added some Fastned, because driving without charging is no fun.

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