Tesla Q1 & Full 2021 Delivery Forecast from Expert Delivery Tracker

“Troy Teslike” is probably the person outside of Tesla who tracks Tesla deliveries more closely than anyone else. He provides quarterly delivery estimates a few times a quarter, with the last one right at the end of the quarter and typically very close to what ends up being the official figure. Actually, he breaks down his predictions by model (only combining S & X) and factory, which is more than Tesla does. So, aside from getting an early and likely close-to-accurate estimate of Tesla’s quarterly deliveries, you can examine more detailed production and delivery figures that are very close to reality.

Diving into Troy’s prediction for the first quarter of 2021, the overall picture is that he expects 165,100 deliveries, a few thousand more than the Factset (Wall Street) consensus. This is significantly lower than his estimate at the beginning of the quarter, and I’ll circle back to why that is shortly.

In the first quarter, Troy’s estimate is that:

• The Model Y had almost double the deliveries of the Model 3 in the USA — 43,000+ versus ~22,000.
• A similar number of Model 3s are expected to be delivered in China from the Shanghai Gigafactory (nearly 44,000), but only 12,000+ Model Ys are expected to have been delivered there.
• Europe is still just getting Model 3s, which Troy pegs at about 25,000 (~19,000 from USA and 6,500 from China).
• APAC beyond China is expected to have logged another ~8,500 Model 3s, a little more than half from Fremont and a little less than half from Shanghai.
• And, not forgetting Canada, it is estimated to have received 4,050 Model 3s and 2,400 Model Ys.

Hi everybody,

• My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2021 is 165,100
• According to this article https://t.co/Um6EQFNXBR Factset consensus is 162K
• Tesla is expected to release the actual numbers on 2 or 3 Apr
• Q1 deliveries were negatively affected by lack of Model S/X pic.twitter.com/u2J9pBVrtK

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 31, 2021

• Here is the latest Tesla deliveries spreadsheet (2019 to 2022) https://t.co/Nzuo66OXso
• Model Y US deliveries are expected to be very strong
• Giga Shanghai expected to start MIC Model 3 Performance production & add a second shift to MIC Model Y production in early Apr

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 31, 2021

By the end of 2021, as would be logical, Tesla’s Fremont factory will have heavily shifted to Model Y production. Tesla Shanghai will be producing the Model Y in high volumes by then, as well as a similar number of Model 3s as Fremont is producing. Some of both models are expected to be shipped to Europe by the end of the year .

For the year as a whole, Troy is expecting:

• 447,291 deliveries of Model 3
• 326,325 deliveries of Model Y
• 42,319 deliveries of Model S & X

That comes to a total of 816,000. (Yes, I’m sure it’s an even number because it’s still early in the year and it’s just a rough forecast.)

Troy’s Q1 estimates are significantly lower than they were at the beginning of the quarter due to the unexpected Model S & Model X refresh as well as the refresh taking longer than expected. When you can’t produce cars and SUVs because the production lines are being revamped, you can’t deliver cars and SUVs.

2/2

However, Tesla had actually stopped S/X prod at the end of Q4 but we didn't know about that until S/X Refresh was announced on 27 Jan.

Then, there were production problems with the Refresh. So, instead of 15K Model S/X in a regular quarter, we are now down to less than 3K.

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 30, 2021

Overall, the estimate is nearly 162,000 deliveries of the Model 3 + Model Y as well as a measly 3,142 deliveries of the S + X in the first quarter, and 773,616 Model 3 + Y for the year as a whole on top of 42,319 S + X. What do you think?

Also, does anything else interesting jump out to you in this forecast?