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Micromobility: Your Next Motorcycle Might Be An Electric Bike

Electric bikes are rapidly evolving to meet 80% of the use cases of the bottom end of the motorcycle market. The Innovator’s Dilemma tells us what that means for motorcycle companies.

Many people are wondering why electric motorcycles aren’t more dominant. A large part of the explanation is from the Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen and Raynor’s key work which is explanatory of so much in this rapidly evolving time. It is also possible that people are simply looking at the wrong segment of the market — at motorcycle manufacturers instead of electric bike manufacturers.

Christiansen and Raynor's disruptive innovation curve

Christiansen and Raynor’s disruptive innovation curve courtesy Sandia Labs

As part of CleanTechnica’s current increased focus on micromobility, some previously published articles in the space are being updated and republished. This is one of them.

Motorcycles, in my argument, are represented on the top line of this graph, the most demanding use. They have evolved to have anti-lock brakes, cruise control, stereos, cup holders, luggage for extended touring, and a lot of bling at the top end. On the performance side of the equation, they have evolved to be incredibly fierce race machines that just happen to be street legal. Up in the hills, motorcycles are hyper-competent off-road machines with amazing amounts of horsepower and torque.

My last motorcycle, a BMW F800ST, was able to go 0–60 in 3.5 seconds but was still comfortable enough for extended touring. At the time, it was hard to find a bike that wasn’t 1200 cc and well over 500 pounds or 230 kg. The bikes that most Europeans and North Americans have been buying are those top end bikes. When people are buying a motorcycle explicitly, they are expecting something top of the line.

Recently, manufacturers have been trying to bring millennials into the fold with naked bikes, but with limited success. Naked bikes are cheap, with a price point under $5,000. At that price point, it is difficult for manufacturers such as Harley Davidson and BMW to make money on as their businesses are optimized for prices in the $20k+ range.

Naked bikes have no fairings, simple seats, no luggage, etc. They have relatively small displacements of 500-650 cc, which makes them well-suited for getting around town and short road trips. They have lower end components that make them suitable for two-passenger riding only for short, occasional trips.

Electric bicycles, on the other hand, are following the curving disruption line on the Innovator’s Dilemma graph. They have evolved to the equivalent utility of naked bikes about 80% of the time and they are far cheaper than naked bikes. When classified as an e-bike, they typically having a lower purchase price and have no license or insurance requirements. They are restricted in speed by regulations in many geographies, but the restrictions still allow them to travel faster than the speed of bicycles and at or above the average speed of urban traffic.

Venn diagram of intersection of ebikes and motorcycles

Diagram by author

The naked bike market currently overlaps with the electric bicycle market, and electric bicycles continue to evolve to greater and greater performance, with some offering the ability to switch off regulation mode for a little illicit fun. There are multiple vendors offering electric bikes capable of hitting 50 mph (80 kph). That’s pretty fast for something that doesn’t require licenses or insurance, although these beasts are intended for off road use, something the makers and buyers appear to be able to say with a straight face.

One thing electric bikes share with motorcycles, but at a greater level, is that gratifying acceleration. Electric torque can’t be beat, and when paired with an electric bike that weighs under 50 kg, it can be incredibly addictive, not to mention better than the motorcycle sitting next to you.

A few manufacturers are even putting out explicitly retro motorcycle-styled electric bikes which look like 1930s racers or vintage cruisers to give a cheap and virtuous aesthetic kick to them. They are blurring the line with motorcycle history intentionally.

The Kosynier DeLux retro bicycle, for example, has a top speed on non-public roads of 50 kph (30 mph), similar to motorcycles in the early 20th century that were raced in banked velodromes. It has a regulated mode limiting it to 25 kph for public roads, which I’m sure everyone will adhere to.

It’s much cheaper to innovate around a bicycle framework. Many manufacturers have already moved to fat tires for improved traction and comfort. Many have decent suspension based on the hyper-competent bicycle suspensions from downhill racing.They even have ABS now. There are two-person electric bikes like those offered by Riese & Müller, among others. They obviously don’t need radiators, mufflers and many other components of traditional internal combustion motorcycles.

One of the limitations that electric motorcycle manufacturers have faced is a combination of rider’s expectations for top end components with the inability to get those components from OEMs due to low volumes. It has taken Zero Motorcycles years of track time and negotiations to get decent brakes and suspension on its bikes, with only the past couple of years’ models getting nods in reviews for those components. For electric bicycles, the rider expectation is much lower and the accessibility of relatively inexpensive but excellent components tuned from downhill racing and the like is much higher. That said, when I was on a panel with the EBike Future Conference recently with Don DiCostanzo of Pedego and Scott Montgomery of CrankTank and formerly Cannondale and Reynolds, they both pointed out that supply chain for electric bike components right now involve 1-year fulfillment timeframes due to COVID-19. It’s not a great time to start a new electric bike brand, unless it is leveraging an existing global brand with buying power.

Electric bikes are rapidly evolving to meet 80% of the use cases of the bottom end of the motorcycle market. The trend is clear. The next generation of motorcycle manufacturers will be the current generation of electric bicycle manufacturers unless the majors get their houses in order. Zero will likely be around and possibly Energica, but electric bicycles will continue to improve as per Innovator’s Dilemma’s incredibly well-supported observations.

Your next motorcycle could be a bicycle.

 
Check out our brand new E-Bike Guide. If you're curious about electric bikes, this is the best place to start your e-mobility journey!
 
 
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Written By

is Board Observer and Strategist for Agora Energy Technologies a CO2-based redox flow startup, a member of the Advisory Board of ELECTRON Aviation an electric aviation startup, Chief Strategist at TFIE Strategy and co-founder of distnc technologies. He spends his time projecting scenarios for decarbonization 40-80 years into the future, and assisting executives, Boards and investors to pick wisely today. Whether it's refueling aviation, grid storage, vehicle-to-grid, or hydrogen demand, his work is based on fundamentals of physics, economics and human nature, and informed by the decarbonization requirements and innovations of multiple domains. His leadership positions in North America, Asia and Latin America enhanced his global point of view. He publishes regularly in multiple outlets on innovation, business, technology and policy. He is available for Board, strategy advisor and speaking engagements.

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