First of all, before we get into the story, let’s note that the Volkswagen ID.3, Volkswagen ID.4, Tesla Model 3, and Tesla Model Y are much more allies than competitors. Their top competitors are fossil fueled vehicles. All of them will grow overall electric vehicle market share.
The Tesla Model 3 is far and away the top selling electric vehicle in the world. It had more sales than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best selling electric vehicles combined in the first half of the year. However, Europe is the hottest electric vehicle market in the world at the moment and there’s a lot of competition and unique European options and tastes.
In the first 7 months of 2020, the Model 3 sits at #2 in Europe behind the smaller and cheaper Renault Zoe. Naturally, the argument on Tesla’s side is always that it is supply limited, not demand limited, but whether that’s the case in Europe or not, at the end of the day, the Model 3 is sitting at #2 in this market whereas it has enormous leads in the US and China.
We’re just getting some more very mass-market vehicles to join the fun. The Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 are expected to be global top sellers in the plugin vehicle market, and their biggest market is going to be Europe. At the same time, Tesla is ramping up Model Y production and will soon begin delivering to Europe, and it is über rapidly building Giga Berlin, where it will be able to produce the Model 3 and Model Y for the European market and avoid import duties and shipping costs.
So, the question people are starting to wonder is: which will sell more in Europe once they’re all at full production capacity, the Volkswagen ID.3 + ID.4 or the Tesla Model 3 + Model Y? Want to make a guess? Here’s a poll for 2022 sales in Europe (be sure to scroll down in the survey form and hit “Done” after you select an answer):
There are no wrong answers … until the end of 2022. Take your best guess. I’m sure we will have people vehemently arguing both possible futures.