There has been a lot of talk about Tesla’s Model Y current production numbers. James shared on Twitter that, “Much has been speculated as to why the Model Y delivery time moved from 8-12 weeks to 4-8 weeks (in the U.S.)” He wondered if there was a demand problem in the tweet below and asked for TroyTeslike’s thoughts.
Thoughts on this @TroyTeslike ?
— James Cat (@TSLAFanMtl) June 1, 2020
With data that he has collected based on a survey he created, Troy has perhaps the best numbers on Tesla Model Y reservations and deliveries outside of Tesla. He has determined that the delivery rate was about 1,034 per week on average between May 18 and June 4.
Based on the survey and other data, Troy thinks that Q1 Model Y production came to 2,800 units, with 2,286 delivered in March and the other 514 delivered in April. As for Q2, he estimates 8,200 will be produced this quarter, with the current production rate being 1,500 units per week and the target being 3,000 per week. So far, Tesla is using general assembly line 4 (GA4) for Model Y production, which is the “tent” that was built for Model 3 production.
I created this order tracker spreadsheet where buyers enter their data https://t.co/Ftek1k2Qfg
My calculation is based on the number of deliveries reported there. I checked again and saw a small error. Now I think the rate is 1034/week on average between 18 May and today
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 4, 2020
“They have been using it for Model Y since mid-March because Model Y production line is not ready yet. At 100% capacity, GA4 can produce 2,205 units per week. I expect production to increase from 900 to 2,205 over time,” Troy said in a tweet.
He also noted that the plan for the dedicated Model Y assembly line was to go online in early July, but he doesn’t know the latest. He also pointed out that there are 18,122 Model Y orders on backlog just for North America.
“These are Model Y buyers who have placed an order but don’t have a delivery date yet. However, some of them have probably canceled their order and haven’t updated their data. So, let’s assume 12K pending orders. In order for Tesla to clear the backlog in 8 weeks, they would have to increase production to 12,000/8=1,500 per week. This seems a bit optimistic but we will see.” You can read the entire thread here.
One thing we know for sure is that Tesla has learned from its challenges. When the company had Model 3 “production hell” and had to get creative, the team used the “tent.” Seeing that tent being used in the production of Model Ys shows that it works well — despite how silly critics thought it was.
Data from the survey shows that Tesla is making progress on its Model Y production. In total, with those 8,200 estimated Model Y deliveries in Q2, Troy is estimating 82,000 Tesla deliveries in the quarter. Tesla had 29,527 vehicles in inventory at the end of Q1.
Top image courtesy Dick Amacher
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