EVs are taking over the world, and if you need proof of this, just look at the sales numbers.
Kevin Rooke recently shared a video on YouTube that does just that. Among the things talked about are trends in global EV sales, the sales mix of fully electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, as well as S-curves and global EV adoption.
Since 2015, EV sales have been growing at a rate around 41% annually. “An impressive rate and it’s been happening on almost every continent around the world, but the trend has been more pronounced in Asia,” says Rooke in his video. He breaks down the growth by region.
- Asia: 55% annual growth
- Americas: 32% annual growth
- Europe: 26% annual growth
And this totals up to 41% annual growth for the entire world. Rooke also shares that China is selling 25 million vehicles every year, more than the US and Canada are selling combined. With one of the larger EV share percentages, that is starting to show as truly large numbers. “China’s 5% sales of EVs represent more sales than Ford’s F-Series.” Data from 2018 shows that Ford sold 909,330 F-Series vehicles while China sold 1,103,923 EVs in 2018.
Another thing that Rooke points out is that in 2014 China sold just over 60,000 EVs, yet in 2018 that number was above a million. This goes to show just how fast China is moving to embrace the EV market. In 2019, China allowed Tesla to open a fully owned factory, which will accelerate not only its growth of EV sales in China but will also further stimulate competitors and grow EV market share in the country.
— Jay Yu (@jayzilla711) February 29, 2020
Rooke also goes over how Tesla helped tip the balance in favor of plug-in electric vehicle sales. The Model S in 2013 made the first big push, and since then there have been more EV sales than PHEV sales.
Rooke says that 2019 looks like the first year that PHEVs actually decreased in sales, and states that, “I might be biased as a Tesla owner but it seems to me that having a gas tank and a battery that you can charge up overly complicates the process of manufacturing cars and it’s really just not needed. Tesla has proven that they can build great cars with batteries.”
When it comes to EV adoption, Rooke compares how we in the US adopted smartphones. From 2005 through 2012, the US went from 2% adoption to 54%. That’s +50% adoption in 7 years. Norway has gone from 3% of all vehicle sales being electric to 56% in 7 years. Rooke explains that many see Norway as the “darling of the EV” world and often a unique case that is seen as the exception to the rule that EVs have low market share, but China’s EV market share has actually been growing faster than Norway’s.
Norway’s success with EVs wasn’t without challenges. One of them is the temperature. The average temperature in Norway is 5 degrees Celsius, which is a chilly 41 degrees Fahrenheit. (Author’s note: No ma’am, no sir — can’t function in that type of cold! Anything under 58 degrees is considered freezing in my book!) Yet despite the cold, in which batteries (like me) don’t function as well, Norway has managed to shift its citizens from mostly gas vehicle sales to mostly EV sales.
Iceland and Sweden have joined Norway in this transition to EVs. Iceland’s EV market share was recently 23.5% and Sweden’s 11.2%. Rooke points out that even though Norway has almost completed its S-curve, Sweden and Iceland are still in their rapid growth phase.
What does all this data show? It shows that it is possible for any nation to nearly transition from gas vehicle sales to fully electric vehicle sales in 5–10 years. Norway, Iceland, and Sweden account for less than 1% of EV sales globally. It’s not that they don’t “matter,” but they are small markets. The US and China have much larger markets in terms of vehicle sales and are now in a similar position to where Norway was in 2012. In 2019, the US EV market share was approaching 2%, and in China it topped 5%.
China Delivery Update: crazy delivery time returns back to @teslacn. Almost all flatbed trucks in Shanghai are rented for #Model3 home delivery. Talking about demand, it’s not slowing down either. New orders submitted today will be delivered in May, according to a sales rep. pic.twitter.com/TLKSFquC1o
— Ray4Tesla⚡️🚘☀️🔋 (@ray4tesla) February 29, 2020
In the next 5–10 years, or by 2030, the possibility of the US and China selling more EVs than gas cars is extremely high. In fact, it’s inevitable. I spoke with my Uber driver yesterday who loves trucks but is very wary of Tesla and Autopilot. He’s heard misleading, negative news about them. I explained to him the tech side, Autopilot — like an electric saw, it is a tool that you need to pay attention to while using it. Once he understood that, he was open to the idea of learning more about it. He also said he was open to the idea of an electric truck such as the Rivian R1T, but he was not into the Cybertruck.
Another Uber driver who drove a BMW was very excited for the Tesla Cybertruck, and even though he hadn’t made a decision to purchase one, he did say his next vehicle was going to be an EV. Other Uber drivers have told me that Teslas are just too expensive. When I explained they start at $35,000, they were shocked.
EVs are taking over the world, for sure, and this is a good thing for the world. It will help lower carbon emissions and clean up our air.