Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica
From Tesla.cn WeChat Account

Cars

YouTuber Speculates How Tesla’s Relentless Drive To Drive Down Costs Could Radically Reduce Transportation Costs

Although Tesla sent out this image below as a teaser to a small car that Tesla might build for global emerging markets, if there is one thing I’ve learned from the Cybertruck unveiling, it is that Tesla will radically change its design to meet its objectives.

Although Tesla sent out this image below as a teaser to a small car that Tesla might build for global emerging markets, if there is one thing I’ve learned from the Cybertruck unveiling, it is that Tesla will radically change its design to meet its objectives. As Franz said in this excellent interview with Ryan McCaffrey, while other manufactures require their designers to compromise on the design of each vehicle so that the new vehicle “looks” like part of of the family, Tesla doesn’t do that. They just design each car to be the best it can be for the target market.

Photo from Tesla.cn WeChat Account

The car above would be a great $25,000 Tesla if that is what Tesla wants. Benjamin Schulz and I covered in this article some ideas to get us down to that goal. But Warren Redlich thinks we might be aiming too high. The most popular cars in India and China are about $4,000 each. But that isn’t the important metric. The cost per mile is what matters more than the purchase price, since you will be able to just use the car for the miles you need.

Warren Redlich’s YouTube video.

A car I was a fan of a few years ago because of its low cost and long range (a perfect complement to the Nissan Leaf I owned at the time) was the Elio. This form factor should have half the wind resistance, half the weight, and about half the material costs — and be perfect for all those trips people take with 1 or 2 people in the car. It’s great for people who aren’t comfortable riding a motorcycle either from a safety perspective or a lack climate control/ getting drenched in the rain. Elio hasn’t been able to get the financing it needs, so I assume it will never get built, but you never know.

Photo from Elio Motors

Warren speculates that we can get from the 60 cents a mile that the IRS allows us to deduct per mile today to less than a nickel a mile. In my most recent article on the 5 year cost of ownership of the Tesla Model 3, I show over $20,000 depreciation over 75,000 miles for a Standard Range Plus, or about 27 cents a mile. He proposes getting the cost down to $10,000 for a million-mile car. That would be a penny a mile.

If you borrowed the whole $10,000 at 5% interest, you would pay $500 a year in financing. Assume 100,000 miles that first year and that is only half a cent a mile — and that would go down as you paid off the loan.  Fuel/electricity costs are about 3 cents a mile for the Model 3 (he said 1.7 cents assuming a very cheap 7 cents a kWh for electricity in India) but a smaller, more efficient vehicle would be about a penny a mile for fuel. According to my cost-of-ownership model, insurance costs about 6 cents a mile today, but with robust full self driving software, it is realistic to drive that down to a penny a mile. I have maintenance and repairs at about 3 cents a mile on the Model 3 today, but a much smaller vehicle should reduce tire and other costs by two thirds and get that to a penny a mile.

  1. Depreciation — 1 cent
  2. Financing — half a cent
  3. Fuel — 1 cent
  4. Insurance — 1 cent
  5. Maintenance & Repairs — 1 cent
  6. Total — 4.5 cents

In this article, Omar and I speculated that if we got the costs per mile down to 18 cents a mile, or 3.6 cents per seat mile, we wouldn’t have to pay that — retailers would pay to bring us to the store! Warren does mention that this radical reduction in costs will increase traffic and we will need to reduce the following distances between cars, possibly allowing 2 vehicles per lane and/or do something like bore tunnels to solve the problem.  I encourage you to watch the 20 minute video yourself to hear Warren’s optimistic view of the future.

If  you decide to order a Tesla, use a friend’s referral code to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging on a Tesla Model S, Model X, or Model 3 (you can’t use it on the Model Y or Cybertruck yet). Now good for $250 (up from $100) off on solar, too! If you don’t have any friends with a Tesla, use mine: https://ts.la/paul92237

 
 
Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.
 
Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.

New Podcast: Cruise Talks Autonomous Driving Tech, Regulations, & Auto Design

New Podcast: Battery Mineral Mining Policies & Regional Trends

Written By

I have been a software engineer for over 30 years, first developing EDI software, then developing data warehouse systems. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @atj721 Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

Comments

#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.

 

Support our work today!

Advertisement

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports

Advertisement

EV Sales Charts, Graphs, & Stats

Advertisement

Our Electric Car Driver Report

30 Electric Car Benefits

Tesla Model 3 Video

Renewable Energy 101 In Depth

solar power facts

Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Cars

It was Ford Mustang Day yesterday, and that helped me to finally get through video editing of some of our Ford Mustang Mach-E footage...

Cars

Originally published on Tesla Oracle &  EV Annex. Is it time for police cruisers to ditch the internal combustion engine? Chief Paul Nikas thinks...

Cars

The auto market is an interesting place. There is a tremendous amount of variation. There are hundreds of models, and while there are certain...

Autonomous Vehicles

Wowza — that’s a top-tier troll to start the weekend. This autonomous driving space is getting especially saucy in 2021. There have been hot...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.