If Iran and the US go to war, no one will win in this conflict. Not the US, not Iran, and definitely not Iraq, which has been placed right in the middle of this war between the US and Iran. People cheering for war and saying that “Trump will wipe Iran off the map” do not realize that it’s not about Iran or Trump. It’s more than that — it’s about power, and the battle for this power or control will not care about casualties of war.
The 2015 nuclear deal was a moment that divided many Americans. Some didn’t think we should have done this deal, but others, like myself, celebrated because peace is always the best solution, especially when it comes to the bigger picture. Iran and the US aren’t the only two countries on this planet, and if a war is to break out, many people will suffer and die — something we have seen in Iraq earlier tonight. Furthermore, many of those people will be innocent.
I am not painting Iran as the victim, but am pointing out that both parties are at fault here, and mixing in religion fueled by hatred for the “other” isn’t going to solve any problems. When one would choose war instead of peace, then the only truly blameless sides are the casualties of war. Yes, Soleimani was a terrorist, yes. His plans took many American lives, yes, and his death may have been justice for those victims of his around the world, but he was just a pawn in a real-life game of international chess between two players who refuse to put their egos aside.
The Real Reasons For This Conflict With Iran
In an article by The Guardian, another outcome is mentioned. The headline reflects that Iran’s assault could actually satisfy both sides. Iran promised revenge for the death of Suleimani and delivered it, but they seem to have been planned to avoid US casualties. Iran’s foreign ministry also claims that these strikes are over with, and that they are self-defense within the boundaries of international law and not “shots fired” — the beginnings of a war. President Trump tweeted “All is well” as a reply to the missile strikes.
The ideal outcome is that both countries would agree to back off and end this. However, the cost would be high since this is an election year. In 2010, Trump said that the American public should distrust a weak and ineffective president whose poll numbers are in a tailspin if he provokes a military confrontation with Iran. He said that Obama would start a war with Iran to try to raise his poll numbers for the 2012 election. It seems that Trump is doing this to save face and look tough in a transparent attempt to get reelected. It seems that this would be the game he is playing — but many in his following don’t care, just like they don’t care that he mocked a disabled reporter, rolled back EPA protections to the point where meat filled with fecal matter is being placed on the shelves of supermarkets, smeared several US war heroes, and the list goes on.
The cost would be Trump getting re-elected, but in my opinion, I don’t think that would be as bad as a third world war breaking out. I don’t like Trump and definitely will not vote for him (I didn’t the first time), and I think America can do much better (we have done much better), but this ideal outcome of making peace is worth the cost of him getting re-elected. It’s not about Trump or Iran anymore, but about the people doing the actual fighting. Some may die if we have an all-out war, while these leaders will sleep peacefully. I would rather no war and for everyone to be at peace.
Topography of Iran. Image by Electionworld and Captain Blood, CC BY-SA 3.0 license
Another thought on this topic is oil interests — everyone wants control over the oil. The BBC reported in November that Iran recently found quite a bit of new oil. This oil field would increase Iran’s reserves by a third, according to President Rounhani. Located in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, this field is 2,400 square kilometers in area (around 593,052 acres). However, tough US sanctions have made it really hard for Iran to sell its oil abroad — sanctions that were imposed after the US pulled out of a nuclear deal with world powers last year.
The oil field has 53 billion barrels of oil in place according to President Rouhani, and this would increase oil revenue by $32 billion if the extraction rate from the oil field was to increase only 1%. Having the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves on the planet, Iran is one of the largest producers of oil in the world and exports are worth billions of dollars every year. US sanctions put Iran in an extremely confining box.
Conclusion
War is a waste of resources and lives. While people fight over borders, boundaries, and religious ideologies with guns, bombs, and money, each attack is a wound to ourselves as a human whole. Humanity is so divided — not just Americans (Democrats and Republicans), but overall. Nations come and go. History has shown this. But in our lifetime we have what the Romans did not in theirs: atomic bombs. These nuclear weapons could actually destroy the planet and all life on it. Hopefully this won’t happen, but if we have more leaders with Trump’s ego and mindset, it very well could.
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