A few days ago I ran across a video from a criminal defense lawyer in Florida that brings up some points I hadn’t heard before. I’d suggest you watch the whole 30 minute video if you have the time. If not, you can read my summary and comments and just use this guide Warren provided to skip to the parts that most interest you. I also find it interesting that Warren has been active in the Libertarian Party and is obviously concerned about the environment. That conflicts with the the story some people promote that only Democrats in the US care about the environment.
00:24 The Auto Industry
07:16 Oil Industry
21:51 Rental Cars
I discussed Tesla’s impact on the used car industry (#10) in a previous video.
1. Auto Industry: He discusses that Tesla is making cars and trucks that can replace 5 vehicles. Since the robotaxi can be used many more hours a day than gas cars today, and since they will be designed to last a million miles instead of about 150,000 miles for a gas car, they won’t have to be replaced as often even though they are heavily used.
2. Oil Industry: Cars and trucks are the main users of oil, which Tesla vehicles don’t use. Natural gas and coal are used for both heating homes and producing electricity. Tesla’s expansion of vehicles, solar panels and roofs, and energy storage at competitive prices will greatly reduce the need for oil, natural gas, and coal.
3. Car Insurance: Millions of people won’t need car insurance if they just use robotaxis. Even for people who keep a personal car, the greatly reduced number of accidents and the injuries associated with those accidents will take most of the money out of this industry.
4. Lawyers: Fewer accidents (because of Full Self Driving) mean less work for both plaintiff and defense attorneys for both car accidents and drunk driving for civil and criminal cases. Nobody will be driving without insurance or with a suspended license since it is just much cheaper to take a robotaxi. Since the cars have so many cameras, criminals won’t be able to stage fake accidents — since you will be able to tell it’s faked from the video evidence. He further wonders if we even need police doing traffic enforcement, which is a major source of other cases (many victim-less crimes).
5. Medical: Much of the work of emergency rooms, chiropractors, and MRI machines is traffic accident related, and if we reduce traffic accidents by 99%, we won’t need as many of these things. Since we have an aging population, we will likely still have work for the medical professionals, but it will shift demand and could help us avoid a crisis we would otherwise face as the baby boomers age and require more medical care.
6. Parking: You don’t need huge parking lots if many people will take a robotaxi. Workplaces and shopping centers won’t need nearly as many parking spaces. Even homes will have have smaller garages or no garages.
7. Rental Cars: Travelers will find it more convenient to just get a robotaxi than rent a car from Hertz or Avis.
8. Railroads: Tesla self-driving semi trucks will reduce the need for freight trains. The Boring Company will reduce the need for traditional commuter railroads.
9. Airlines: Hyperloop and SpaceX will be very appealing (faster and cheaper) than taking an airline.
10. Used car industry: As people realize the low cost of ownership, Tesla vehicles become much more appealing that BMW and Mercedes vehicles, so the resale values of the traditional luxury values are being crushed.
Warren presents a very optimistic view of the future overall, but warns that if you are in one of the above industries, there will be some adjustments that could be painful to individuals caught up in the massive transition driven by Elon Musk and Tesla.
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