Another Tesla Conference Call, Time For Critics To Move The Goal Posts

Tesla critics and short sellers have moved a lot of goal posts. I recently highlighted this a bit with the articles “7 Things Tesla Couldn’t Do” and “7 More Things Tesla Couldn’t Achieve,” and have done so much more in our long-running “Tesla Flashbacks” series. Twitter user “The Short Shorts Historian”/@TeslaHistorian recently tackled this matter using another format — a timeline. (Incidentally, my eldest daughter is working on a timeline for kindergarten right at this very moment, so I’m especially fond of @TeslaHistorian’s approach to his distinguished vocation this week.)

If you’re not a frequent Tesla tweeter, you probably have very little exposure to the interesting squad of Tesla short sellers and critics on Twitter. As with any group, there are plenty of minor characters on the edge, there are numerous followers, and then there are the most involved, obsessive, vocal, followed, and referenced people in the center of the group. The first timeline below covers some of the statements of perhaps the #1 alpha short seller in that group (or one of the top three at least). The funny thing is that he should have deleted his account a long time ago. He promised to do so if Tesla ever achieved one of three things, and Tesla has achieved two of those things (the company delivered a GAAP profit for two consecutive quarters and surpassed the “impossible” production milestone @TeslaCharts had delineated). Despite the clear promise and Tesla’s official success, the colorful tweeter has decided not to honor his word. (Who’s surprised?) Here’s an interesting little timeline of 8 tweets from @TeslaCharts from July 2018 to October 2018:

Graphic by @TeslaHistorian

One of the funny things about @TeslaCharts is that he doesn’t just have the opinion that Tesla is overvalued, but actually seems to think the company is worth $0. It’s genuinely hard to imagine how this person can ignore so much obvious value in Tesla, and also hard to imagine why anyone takes him seriously, but both appear to be the case. Edit: I deleted a statement here after publishing that was indeed illogical, as @TeslaCharts pointed out. (Oh, I should note that I’m long Tesla — because I have a dramatically different view of the company and where it’s headed. Though, that was probably obvious by now.)

This is interesting, and potentially important, particularly because Tesla is the second most shorted stock on the US stock market, which means there’s a lot of money betting on the idea that Tesla’s [TSLA’s] stock price is going to go down. Whether there are logical beliefs in that forecast or not, it’s fascinating that top short sellers and critics on Twitter are consistently so wrong yet continue to garner respect from certain people.

Furthermore, not to say it ever stopped, but we appear to again have media coverage from clearly biased and frequently incorrect outlets like Business Outsider* and Consumer News & Bullsh** Channel (CNBC) heating up around all kinds of “scary” Tesla analyses and forecasts. It’s the same thing they’ve been doing for years, just with the goal posts moved a bit to match the current moment.

Why?

Well, for one, as I just noted, a lot of people with a lot of money on the line (over $10 billion) are betting on Tesla’s stock price going down, and there’s basically nothing stopping them from smearing the company in order to try to make that happen — and so they do. Another matter is that Tesla threatens massive, super rich industries — the oil industry, the auto dealer industry, the automobile engine industry, the utility industry (via its solar and battery arm), and so on. It’s not just these industries either — there are ancillary industries and jobs that support those core threatened industries. Interestingly, the three banks that provide the most funding for fossil fuel extraction and development are also bearish on Tesla [TSLA]. Who would’ve guessed it?

Analysts at the top 3 banks funding fossil fuel development all have sell ratings on $TSLA

1. JP Morgan Chase
2. Citi
3. B of A/Merrill Lynch

Coincidence?#followthemoney#Tesla @mayemusk @zshahan3 @ResidentSponge https://t.co/KWdjmI4RpK pic.twitter.com/MJ1RpmNGpf

— Not_an_Analyst (@facts_tesla) October 17, 2019

Let’s get back to The Tesla Short Shorts Historian fun.

I won’t provide commentary on all of these, as they speak for themselves, but here’s a roundup of some magic 8 ball gems from some of the most vocal and followed Tesla short sellers and critics on Twitter:

Let's start with @librab103. Hopefully the picture is readable. pic.twitter.com/OhfAzcfUw7

— The Short Shorts Historian (@TeslaHistorian) October 21, 2019

@lazygetter pic.twitter.com/I7l5hAmBTt

— The Short Shorts Historian (@TeslaHistorian) October 22, 2019

@markbspiegel pic.twitter.com/i57pvjQpSN

— The Short Shorts Historian (@TeslaHistorian) October 22, 2019

I know — after a while you can’t even look at the highlights since they’re so depressing and so predictable. Kudos to The Tesla Short Shorts Historian for painstakingly spending so much time finding and organizing these tweets to remind us of how these critics’ arguments have had to shift over time as their forecasts turned out absurdly off the mark.

*Credit to Maarten on this improvement to the actual outlet name.

**Yes.

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