A new outlook has concluded that the top 5 wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will account for over two-thirds of the market share by 2020, a market consolidation which will also be reflected in the home-bound Chinese market.
Renewable energy analyst Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables published its inaugural Global Wind Turbine OEM Market Share Forecasts H1 this week, revealing what it believes will be the medium-term result of a long-seen consolidation of the Western wind turbine manufacturing market. Specifically, Wood Mackenzie expects the top 5 wind turbine OEMs will account for a combined market share of 68%, up from 47% only 5 years ago.
“We expect Vestas to retain its market leadership position in 2019, followed by [Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE)] and GE,” said Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables principal analyst, Shashi Barla. “Combined, the 3 OEMs will capture more than 50% market share this year.
“Chinese leaders, Goldwind and Envision, are popular due to product reliability and track record, strengthening domestic market share in China to more than 50%,” added Barla. “International expansion in Latin America, Africa, and APAC will see both positioned in the top 5 global OEM list.”
“European pioneers Enercon and Nordex swing back into action with increased order activity over the last 12 months, paving the way for a strong performance in 2020/21 outside of core European markets with cost-optimised platforms. However, both may face an uphill battle when it comes to competing with their larger western peers.”
Wood Mackenzie also expects to start see market consolidation begin to affect the Chinese market, as its Tier II and III OEMs begin to lose ground in competitive auctions to its Tier I leaders.
The United States, however, is expected to remain the single-largest market for the global leaders in the near-term, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest projections.
“SGRE is working to revive its prospects in the US before the federal renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) fades, while NextEra and Invenergy are maintaining their historical preference for GE as a turbine supplier,” added Barla. “Vestas has been successful with utilities and IPPs from both the US and Europe, which is illustrated in large volumes of turbines being shipped to MidAmerican, Xcel , EDF, and Avangrid.
“Vestas dominates the [Europe, Middle East, Africa, Russia, and Caspian] region due to geographic diversification and a strong presence in emerging market auctions, such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa. SGRE’s success in European markets, including Spain and Turkey, and emerging African markets, including Egypt and Morocco, will strengthen the company’s presence in the region. Nordex has been relatively successful in Germany over the last 5 years, largely attributed to their focus on low wind turbines N117/2400 , N117/3X00 and N131/3X00. They are likely to repeat their low wind success story with the new Delta4000/5000 N149 series.
“After 2 painful transition years in India, OEM activity has gained momentum. Suzlon and SGRE have captured over 50% of the market auction volume, while a surge in market demand will create room for new players. Vestas returned to India with 1.1GW in orders since 2017, a record for the company’s history in the country, thanks to local blade manufacturing.”
When it comes to offshore wind turbine OEMs, however, Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas (a joint venture between Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Vestas) are expected to remain in control of the industry with a cumulative share of over 60%. GE, which will bring its mammoth 12 megawatt (MW) Haliade-X to market in the early part of the next decade, must focus on commercializing its new turbine to steal market share away from the market leaders.
Showcasing again the closed-garden nature of its economy, China’s offshore wind industry is led by 4 offshore wind turbine OEMs — SEwind, Goldwind, MingYang, and Envision — which, together, account for over 90% of the market. Translating this into global success, MingYang now sits amidst the world’s leading wind turbine OEMs thanks to a strong regional presence in Guangdong Province — China’s largest offshore region and the region responsible for successfully positioning the 5.X MW platform.