In the past couple of years, Tesla [TSLA] has often been the most shorted stock on the US stock market. Billions of dollars are consistently being put on the line based on the idea TSLA will crash, or at least go down. For much longer than that, more than 11 years, critics have been predicting Tesla’s imminent death.
As I hear pundits on @CNBC and @YahooFinance talk about the doom of @Tesla and @elonmusk, I always remember this graph of Tesla revenues crushing it, year after year. None of these people sitting on the sidelines ever expected this. Remember that! pic.twitter.com/aS89vxqdpT
— Hamid Shojaee (@hamids) May 17, 2019
Many of these critics like to claim that Tesla doesn’t hit its forecasts, but, from what I’ve seen, the company is actually exceptionally good at hitting long-term targets. Yes, for sure, some targets are missed, but if you want to see a really bad track record of Tesla forecasts, you just have to spend a little time going through the $TSLAQ archives on Twitter.
$TSLAQ implies that Tesla is headed for bankruptcy. It is full of comments regarding Tesla and Elon Musk (and CleanTechnica) that are hugely divorced from reality. A Twitter user named Yun Lin recently posted a nice collection of these tweets. I’m quoting 10 of my favorites from that collection and a few older sources below.
May 28, 2015: “bankruptcy won’t be till 2019–2020, but I think stock will be in $30s by late 2017. I control risk via size” (Tesla stock did not drop to $30s by late 2017.)
May 28, 2017: “Bolt’s much bigger & better inside. [Model 3] is sleeker w/ 0–60 in 5s instead of 6s but that’s it. 2018/2019 sales will disappoint & it’ll lose.” (Model 3 sales have not disappointed, and it has not lost.)
May 28, 2017: “So $TSLA has absolutely NO technology advantage over $GM and MASSIVE financial & scale disadvantage. It’s a total bubble — maybe biggest ever.” (Hmm … what?)
May 28, 2018: “Public service message for all potential #Tesla employees: Tesla is technically insolvent (hugely negative working capital) & may be headed for bankruptcy. Please be sure to get paid in cash not stock — don’t fall for any sales pitch about ‘options.’ That is all.” (That was more than one year ago.)
June 2, 2018: “Hyundai Kona EV is going to do a lot of damage at lower end of market. High quality, long range, available in U.S. later this year, and pricing will be ~$35k before tax credits. Tesla tax credits will be long gone by the time the lower end Model 3 is produced (if it ever is).”
June 21, 2018: “The meltdown is close now. When the lack of demand rears its ugly head in Q3, it’s the last straw. I’m looking forward to this being over, it’s exhausting.” (Tesla demand in Q3 was huge. Was bigger in Q4.)
June 30, 2018:
“As a friendly reminder to all the haters, all your God Elon has to do to make me go away is one of these three things. For example, if he produced 25,714 Model 3s in a 30-day month, or 26,571 in a 31-day month, ever, I’ll delete my account.” (Tesla did so and the user, one of the biggest Tesla trolls on Twitter, did not delete his account.) Edit: I’ll remove this one since I don’t know of definitive proof Tesla has produced more than 25,714 Model 3s in a 30-day month, or 26,571 in a 31-day month — clearly, it has delivered more than that in some months. Instead, from that same person: [I’ll delete my account if] Tesla produces a GAAP profit for two consecutive quarters, ever. (Tesla did so. Account wasn’t deleted.)
August 23, 2018: “By the time any such deal [going private] can be hammered out, dreadful Q3 & Q4 financial results will be in. The truth about the collapsed demand for the Model 3 will be evident. More competition will have arrived, There will be blood on the tracks. Deal at $4.20? Maybe.”
September 16, 2018: “All these discounts and free super charging [sic] for what? Boost Q3 demand? What about Q4 and beyond? Buy one get one free?”
March 14, 2019: “Musk is playing his final card tonight [with Model Y] announcement. He is out of tricks [with the Model 3] global backlog exhausted by April, S/X demand -40% y/y, and the Y 15 months out. There are no $TSLAQ answers for Q2/Q3 following the large Q1 loss. Mix in the [federal tax credit] cut 7/1 & it is grim.”
— YunLinSJ (@YunLinSJ) June 17, 2019
— 💎🐾Esteemed Earl of Frunkpuppy🐶 (@28delayslater) June 9, 2019