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Tesla Model 3 Used Car Stats As Depressing For BMW & Audi As New Car Sales

There are 40 times as many new BMW 3 Series for sale used and 30 times as many Audi A4s as Tesla Model 3s as a ratio of 2018 new car sales. Tesla kicks butt in the used car division too.

The Tesla Model 3 has many superlatives associated with it. The most pre-orders of any production car ever. The highest volume sales of any small or midsize luxury sedan in the USA. The highest revenue for any car sold in the USA for the last 4–6 months of 2018. The fewest buttons, switches, and dials of any car.

But there’s another superlative.

The fewest used cars available. By an order of magnitude.

Autotrader is the largest online used car site in the USA. A search for second-hand Tesla Model 3s on January 1st found 78 Tesla Model 3s for sale on the site. There were roughly 140,000 Tesla Model 3s sold in 2018 when you include likely December sales per earlier CleanTechnica reporting.

78 used cars represents about 0.06% of the Tesla Model 3s on the road. That number doesn’t seem that high.

Using the November sales chart, I also looked at the cars which ranked just above and below the Model 3 in January–November 2018 sales volume. Checking for used 2018–2019 Chevy Malibus on Autotrader, there are over 1,000 for sale right now, and there were only a few more of them built and sold in 2018 than the Model 3. There are 986 used 2018–2019 Ford Focuses available for sale right now, 13 times more than Tesla Model 3s, with fewer built and sold. That’s about 0.8% that are up for resale.

There’s an order of magnitude fewer Tesla Model 3s for sale than cars which sold in equal numbers in 2018 in the USA.

But what about its closest competitors, small, luxury, performance sedans such as the BMW 3 Series and the Audi A4? They have similar price points and target demographics, so are arguably better to compare to the Model 3 than either the Malibu or Focus.

New Tesla Model 3s outsold new 3 Series and A4s by a large margin in 2018 in the USA, three to four times the sales volume. But going back to Autotrader and looking solely at used 2018–2019 cars for sale is instructive. There are over 1,000 BMW 3 Series available right now for those model years. There are 502 Audi A4s available. There are 7 to 13+ more used new-model BMWs and 6 times as many Audi A4s for sale as Tesla Model 3s.

Let’s run the numbers a slightly different way. If all else were equal, the number of cars available used should be aligned to the number of cars sold. The ratios should be relatively close. There were more BMW 3 Series sold than Audi A4s and there are more available used. The ratio isn’t perfect, as new is roughly 4:3 and used is in the range of 2:1, but the principle applies.

When we look at Tesla vs BMW, we see a ratio of 3:1 new and 1:13 used. Really, the way to look at this is that potentially 40 times as many BMW owners are dumping their new 3 Series as Tesla owners are doing with their Model 3s. Audi is 4:1 and 1:7. There are about 30 times as many Audi owners dumping their A4s as Tesla owners.

There were certainly anecdotal stories of people who bought the two-wheel drive as soon as they could but then put down the more serious money for the AWD or Performance version when it was made available. And there are certainly people who were speculating on the Model 3, intending to make a fast buck by flipping it to people who wanted one.

But what about mileage? Well, a scan of the mileage on Autotrader found a range from 11 miles to 14,000 miles on the cars. There were some that were obviously bought to flip second hand with 11 to 45 miles on them. There were some in the 1,000–2,000 range. The majority were in the mid-1,000s. There were a handful over 10,000, which is reasonable given annual mileage averages in the USA are about 13,500.

Did some people buy to flip? Yes, and no surprise. They probably did okay in June, but wouldn’t be doing okay today with Tesla running 6,000–7,000 a week. Speculation on the Model 3 for quick flips is more a thing of the past, although obviously this does suggest that resale value remains high. Some of the variance can be explained by high demand for used Model 3s, meaning that used inventories remain low.

But really, the statistics show that Tesla Model 3 owners are very happy with their cars and keeping them. Demand is very strong for the newest Tesla. For BMW and Audi? Not so much.

 
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Written By

is Board Observer and Strategist for Agora Energy Technologies a CO2-based redox flow startup, a member of the Advisory Board of ELECTRON Aviation an electric aviation startup, Chief Strategist at TFIE Strategy and co-founder of distnc technologies. He spends his time projecting scenarios for decarbonization 40-80 years into the future, and assisting executives, Boards and investors to pick wisely today. Whether it's refueling aviation, grid storage, vehicle-to-grid, or hydrogen demand, his work is based on fundamentals of physics, economics and human nature, and informed by the decarbonization requirements and innovations of multiple domains. His leadership positions in North America, Asia and Latin America enhanced his global point of view. He publishes regularly in multiple outlets on innovation, business, technology and policy. He is available for Board, strategy advisor and speaking engagements.

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