More than 680 gigawatts (GW) of new wind power is expected to come online around the globe in the next decade, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
Wood Mackenzie announced this week that it had upgraded its Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q4 2018 by 2% compared to only a quarter ago, with the majority of the expected growth to occur in the medium-term, boosting annual capacity additions from 2020 to 2023 by an average of 2.7 GW.
However, it is the long-term outlook which is most impressive, with Wood Mackenzie analysts forecasting that more than 680 GW worth of new wind power — both onshore and offshore — will be brought online through 2027.
In Europe, Wood Mackenzie expects the maturation of the region’s offshore wind sector will act as a strong driver of growth, while both Japan and South Korea are expected to boast an offshore base of over 2 GW each — not bad, considering neither country has more than 100 megawatts worth of offshore capacity.
“With 16 GW of offshore wind power capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2018 and more than 47 GW expected to come online in the region from 2018 to 2027, the European offshore sector continues to be a focal point of growth for the wind power industry,” said lead author Luke Lewandowski, director of Americas power & renewables research. “The European offshore wind power experience has encouraged governments in other regions to support offshore wind to comply with carbon reduction strategies and renewable energy targets as well as more firmly secure domestic power supply.”
The burgeoning US offshore wind market also received an upgraded outlook from Wood Mackenzie, as “Attractive price signals are expected to motivate an increase in state-level procurement activity from both pioneering states, such as Massachusetts and New York, as well as new entrants over the long term, such as California and Delaware,” according to Lewandowski. Specifically, Wood Mackenzie now expects the US will boast around 10 GW worth of offshore wind by the end of 2027.
Across the rest of the Americas, Wood Mackenzie expects election results in Brazil, Mexico, and Quebec, Canada, have or may have an impact on their respective wind power outlooks. Specifically, conservative wins in Brazil and Canada threaten potential growth, but a more liberal win in Mexico has resulted in an unclear future. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, Australia’s onshore sector is responsible for adjustments in the Asia Pacific, as auction awards and financing commitments have boomed of late ahead of the country’s renewable energy target deadline. Specifically, recent announcements have resulted in a nearly 2 GW upgrade to the outlook and project capacity under construction increased to 5 GW.