No one outside of Tesla knows Tesla’s clear, definite, official monthly sales figures. No one outside of Tesla knows the global figures let alone for the US ones. Nonetheless, one thing is obvious — Tesla is completely crushing the competition in the midsize luxury car segment.
Actually, even combining the small & midsize luxury car segments and combining models in these segments from the various luxury automakers, Tesla is king. Let’s have a look at 10 charts to explore the November numbers for other brands and estimates for Tesla (and Jaguar).
Just looking at this model vs. model chart, it’s clear the Model 3 doesn’t belong. Some will say it’s all about Tesla’s long list of reservations. But there’s surely more to it than that. Store walk-ins, word of mouth, and people just searching around for a good car must be piling onto the mountain of Model 3 sales. It’s the safest car, quickest car in its price range, coolest car, and most autonomous car anywhere near a Mercedes C-Class or BMW 5 Series. My question remains the same as in previous months: Why would anyone buy any of the other cars on this list?
Here’s another way to look at those numbers. Who doesn’t like pie? (Actually, I’m not a huge fan, but let’s not get into that.) That big chunk of red represents 28% of the small and midsize luxury car segments in the US, meaning that as long as the estimate is approximately true, 1 out of every 4 car sales in these segments was the sale of a Tesla Model 3 in November. Shocking … if it didn’t make so much sense.
As in previous months, I think it actually makes more sense to combine the various small and midsize models for each of these brands. After all, Tesla has only one car in this general range. The competition shouldn’t be shamed just because they have more differentiation and choice. Even so, the 28% market share doesn’t change and the Model 3 remains on top — by far.
This is the same competition, but I find it so fun to jump between January and November sales that I created a chart just for that.
And here’s a third version of this chart, if you want to slowly or quickly click through each month of the year and watch the Tesla Model 3’s rise through 11 months.
Just pulling out the 11 most popular luxury cars in the country (which happens to include the Tesla Model S at #11), this is yet another fun way to observe the trend. Actually, is there any way to absorb the trend that isn’t fun?
You may think here that you’re seeing a repeat of the first chart above. Look more closely. This is January-through-November sales for the various small and midsize luxury cars in the US. I almost find this the most interesting chart of all. It provides context. It’s not just about November sales or quarterly sales — look at the full 11 months. Perhaps it’s easy for critics, skeptics, and trolls to write off one month of skyrocketing sales, but when the Model 3 dominates the market over the course of a year, that’s something else. We’ll see how things look once we get official Q4 sales from Tesla. 😉
If we’re going to talk about perspective, though, I think we have to bring in the even broader car sales. Across all cars in the US, only two luxury cars make it onto the top 20 list for November. That’s the #17 Mercedes CLA-Class and the #6 (or so) Tesla Model 3. Not that much further to the top.
Again, year-to-date sales are even more useful, but the Model 3 still sits in the #11 spot. As forecasted last month, I presume the small electric giant will end in the #10 position — or even #9, but I don’t want to be too bullish publicly.
This is perhaps the most fun of all. Watch the Model 3 rise in the ranks in competition with the most popular cars in the United States. It’s exciting. But what’s most titillating about this chart is that it seems it is building towards a top position — or at least top 3 — that is yet to come. Stay tuned to CleanTechnica to watch the impossible be achieved, and put into a proper, useful, sometimes even thrilling storyline.
If you’re looking to buy a Tesla, appreciate my work, and need a referral code, here you go: http://ts.la/tomasz7234
Note that our monthly estimates for Tesla Model 3 sales are based on approximately half a dozen different sources and discrete statements from Tesla. We feel fairly confident in the general estimates, but as noted above, they are not official figures leaked by someone inside of Tesla or anything like that. This month, Paul Fosse’s estimate won the polling and was selected as the non-official official figure.