A new report published this week has determined that 82% of the G20’s energy supply is still sourced from fossil fuels and none of the countries’ climate pledges are on a 1.5˚C-compatible pathway, contributing to a current trend which will see global warming of 3.2˚C unless G20 nations halve their emissions by 2030.
Currently, according to a new report published this week by Climate Transparency entitled Brown to Green: The G20 Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy 2018, existing nationally determined contributions (NDCs) pledged by countries signed on to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement will result in global warming of 3.2˚C. Further, none of the G20 NDC targets for 2030 are in line with the Paris Agreement. Climate Transparency describes its report as “the world’s most comprehensive annual review of G20 climate action.”
Additionally, India’s NDC is the closest to being 1.5˚C-compatible, as it stands at a 2˚C-compatible pathway at the moment. Meanwhile, if NDCs were collectively modeled around those of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, global warming would exceed 4˚C. To make matters worse, the current policies of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, and the United States will see them miss their NDC targets. Conversely, China, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are likely to achieve or even overachieve their current targets — although, in some cases, this is because the NDCs in question have little to no ambition to begin with.
“The recent IPCC 1.5°C report showed us the world needs to ramp up action on climate change,” said Jiang Kejun of the Energy Research Institute in China, one of the report’s authors. “Power generation from coal, oil and gas, and transport produce the biggest chunk of emissions in the vast majority of G20 countries.
“No G20 government is really getting a grip on these sectors – especially Australia, the United States, Russia, and Indonesia, who are all lagging behind. But some countries are already moving ahead, like the United Kingdom or France with their decision to quickly phase out coal and fossil fuel-based cars.”
Specifically, according to the report, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Japan source 90% of their energy supply from fossil fuels.
“The G20 economies actually need to cut their emissions by half by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5°C,” said co-author Jan Burck of Germanwatch. “But instead of responding to the urgency of climate change, the G20 countries continue to pour money into factors that drive climate disruption, like fossil fuel subsidies, instead of taking stronger action. Saudi Arabia, Italy, Australia and Brazil provide the highest amount of subsidies per GDP.”
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