The Elephant Model 3 In The Room
If you read any articles on September vehicle sales in the automotive, financial, or general press, they all have two themes. One is that hurricanes artificially boosted demand for vehicles a year ago — this is a one-month impact. The other is that people are moving from cars to SUVs — this has been going on for years.
You can find examples in USA Today, Autoweek, The Detroit News, The Auto Channel, and elsewhere.
I won’t comment on the hurricanes, but I wonder if the narrative that people are just shifting from cars to SUVs and trucks holds up to a closer look. I took a detailed look at Toyota and Honda to see.
The Toyota car sales went down 23,205 from last year, but SUV and truck sales only went up 1,270. So, only 5.5% of the sales loss was captured by SUV or truck sales.
The Honda results are a little better, since car sales went down 13,693, but SUV and truck sales went up by 3,074, capturing 22.4% of the car sales lost — still not even a quarter, but a better explanation than in the case of Toyota.
The Elephant in the Room
Tesla doesn’t break down its sales geographically or by month, so we need to use someone’s estimates.
Zach Shahan, Director and Chief Editor of CleanTechnica, has estimated that 24,040 Model 3s were sold in the US last month, making it the 4th best selling car in the country. The Toyota Prius is the top car traded in on the Tesla Model 3, while the Honda Accord and Honda Civic are the 3rd and 4th most common cars traded in (as disclosed during the Q2 Tesla financials call). So, we know both of these companies’ customers are buying Tesla Model 3s.
Isn’t it interesting that nobody is writing stories on electric cars displacing gas cars, but everyone is writing stories on SUVs and trucks are replacing cars?
| Car | Sales — September |
Base Price Today
|
| Toyota Camry | 27,640 | $23,495 |
| Honda Accord | 25,357 | $23,570 |
| Honda Civic | 24,806 | $18,940 |
| Tesla Model 3 (est.) | 24,040 | $49,000 |
| Toyota Corolla | 20,797 | $18,600 |
| Hyundai Elantra | 19,923 | $16,950 |
| Nissan Sentra | 16,795 | $16,990 |
| Ford Fusion | 15,878 | $22,215 |
| Nissan Altima | 11,867 | $23,260 |
| Kia Optima | 10,976 | $16,800 |
| Volkswagen Jetta | 10,631 | $18,545 |
| Kia Soul | 10,540 | $16,490 |
| Hyundai Sonata | 7,735 | $22,300 |
| Toyota Prius | 7,378 | $23,475 |
| Ford Focus | 7,195 | $17,950 |
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