Annual wind capacity additions in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) are expected to reach 12.1 gigawatts (GW) by 2022 according to new research from MAKE Consulting, more than double the capacity added by the end of 2017 of 5.5 GW.
The new report, Asia Pacific (excl. China) Wind Power Outlook 2018, was published this week by MAKE Consulting (recently a Wood Mackenzie company), and predicted that not only would annual wind capacity additions in the region reach a peak of 12.1 GW, but that over 96 GW would be added over the next 10 years thanks to market dynamics at play in India, Australia, and Taiwan. As a result, cumulative wind capacity in the region is likely to hit 141 GW in 10 years.
MAKE focused primarily on those three countries. Specifically, in India, MAKE Senior Analyst Robert Liew believes that wind development will achieve record years of new added capacity but that growth prospects could be limited by grid limitations, an issue which continues to plague the Indian energy sector no matter the technology type. As the country transitions to an auction system — as compared to the previously-traditional government financial support mechanism — the growth of the wind energy industry in India is reliant upon large-scale auctions which have allowed wind prices to drop by over half in just under a year. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the Indian central government is now targeting upwards of 10 GW of new auctions every financial year.
Conversely, according to Liew, “Political uncertainty over replacement of the national renewable energy target in Australia hinders growth potential.” As has been highlighted recently, the Australian renewable energy sector receives little-to-no support from the Federal Government due to the mammoth entrenched interests in the country’s coal industry present in the current ruling party, headed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. This has been taken to new heights with political infighting over the proposed National Energy Guarantee (NEG) which doesn’t even warrant the title of “middle ground option” between the two ideological points of view regarding renewable energy. As such, renewable energy growth is driven at the State- and commercial-level, as well as market economics that stem from the competitiveness of onshore wind’s Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE).
Meanwhile, as has also been repeatedly highlighted of late, the Taiwan wind sector is being driven almost single-handedly by its offshore wind energy potential and its recent auctions which recently awarded over 5 GW to numerous bidders. What will be most important to watch is the role that Taiwan begins to play as a regional hub for the development of offshore wind, as well as the country’s own future ambitions.
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