I am making an earnings per share (EPS) prediction only for the Tesla automotive segment, excluding leasing, since I think Wall Street is way too negative on Tesla.
My expected EPS is $6.95 before one-time item lines for capital expenditures (including the tent assembly line and Tesla Grohmann Automation expenditures), restructuring expenses (including recent layoffs), and other one-time item lines, and assuming Tesla did not issue more stock since last quarter, which seems unlikely given their employee stock participation policy (in addition, the layoff issue might include issuing stock for employees that are leaving).
However, until disclosed, it is difficult to predict the number of issued stock for the second quarter, which might decrease EPS by up to 42 cents if 10 million weighted basic and diluted additional shares were issued.
The EPS prediction of $6.95 is for 13 weeks of production of cars. If fewer work weeks are included in the second quarter, then this will affect the EPS. For instance, the EPS prediction decreases to $6.06 for 12 weeks of production of cars and to $5.18 for 11 weeks of production of cars.
The EPS does not include the energy generation & energy storage division, or the services and other division, but it does include the car sales segment (or automotive sales line item) without leasing.
In addition, this prediction is for produced cars. It is not for delivered cars. I believe that Tesla has been stockpiling cars (until the beginning of the third quarter) in order to help more consumers benefit from the US federal tax credit.
This will make Tesla’s sales look smaller for this quarter, but this will not matter that much by the time Tesla closes its books for the year, since actual, massive deliveries will be made in the first two weeks of the 3rd quarter and Tesla will receive payment for these cars around the time of delivery. This will simply move sales from this quarter to next quarter.
However, the key disclosure this quarter will be the number of cars produced. I am expecting almost twice as many cars produced in the 2nd quarter compared to the first quarter.
I will be glad to explain this prediction in future articles.
Disclaimer: I have, sadly, no positions in the stock of this company. The above is not a recommendation for investment. If you seek investment advice consult with a professional, and if you do invest, then do it wisely and without allowing the loss of any of your investments to injure you financially. Remember that money invested in the stock, bond, option, futures, and real estate markets can and might go to zero.
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