Global annual wind power capacity additions are now expected to average over 67 gigawatts (GW) between 2018 and 2027 according to an updated forecast from MAKE Consulting, which has had to upgrade its own forecasts made just last quarter.
Towards the end of March this year, MAKE Consulting — which is now a part of research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie, which also owns GTM Research — published figures that forecast annual wind power capacity additions around the globe between 2018 and 2027 would average out at 65 GW.
As with much of what MAKE publishes, much of its final product is naturally hidden behind their various subscription pay-walls. The publicly available information for this new report, Q2/2018 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update, is thus focused more on average annual capacity additions rather than any long-term capacity total.
The new report upgrades last quarter’s report, with average capacity additions bumped up nearly 3% to 67 GW from 2018 to 2027, resulting in a compounded annual growth rate of over 8% over the forecast period. Specifically, however, the upgrade to MAKE’s forecast is based more in the medium-term, with capacity forecasts increasing by nearly 14 GW between 2020 to 2024.
MAKE highlights several regional shifts which have contributed to its upgraded forecast, including momentum in the US offshore wind energy sector thanks to recent announcements by Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Together, this has boosted the country’s wind forecast by more than 6 GW between 2021 and 2027. Canada’s near-term execution has also been called in to question, while Mexico’s growth expectations have been downgraded by 24%.
The report’s outlook for Europe (which includes Russia) increased by 1.7 GW from the first quarter report, thanks to a 500 MW upgrades in the UK and Norway, and a 600 MW upgrade from the Netherlands, which helped to offset the offshore wind capacity additions for Denmark and Sweden which have been pushed back out beyond 2027. Greece’s announcement of a wind auction pushed its forecast up 31% but this is overshadowed by economic weakness in Turkey shifting that country’s forecasts.
One of the bigger forecast shifts was in Iran, which saw its forecast drop by 47% after the United States shattered the Iran nuclear deal, pushing the Middle East’s forecast down 9%.
China’s outlook remains mostly unchanged despite the announcement of an auction regime, while India’s aggressive wind target for 2022 has resulted in an increase to its forecast of 8 GW. Japan also saw a 3 GW upgrade, pushing an upgrade of 13% to the Asia Pacific region’s forecast.
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