A contributor over at the Tesla Motors Club forum by the name of Lbkmxp100d dropped some specific details about Tesla’s Model 3 production numbers on Monday that are allegedly straight from Tesla’s Fremont factory. Those numbers put Model 3 production for the 7 days prior at 4,290.
Lbkmxp100d also shared that in the 24 hours prior, Tesla produced 638 Model 3, which amounts to just over 4,400 per week when extrapolated out. On the quarterly earnings call, Tesla shared that it would be taking the Model 3 production line down for another couple of days to address several issues or constraints in the line. While the new rates are more than double the rates proved out in April, they are not so astronomically high as to be unbelievable.
Here’s the text from the post over at the Tesla Motors Club forums:
“Report from Fremont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):
* 4290 — Last 7 days production of M3
* 638 — Last 24 hrs production of M3
“The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26–27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.”
The contributor went on to confirm that these numbers were straight from the factory and just for the Model 3 production line. Again, that’s assuming that the numbers are real and not just wishful thinking by a Tesla fanatic or TSLA shareholder looking to bolster share prices for a short time.
“Correct, these numbers are specific to M3 line. The S and X lines are not represented in those totals. The numbers came directly from end of line board that is constantly updating 24/7 as M3’s come off line.”
Having stated the skeptical perspective on the update, these numbers are very much in line with the numbers shared by Tesla CEO Elon Musk on the earnings call of proven production rates from some of the unit operations in the Tesla factory. Additionally, he shared that their internal target was to hit 6,000 Model 3s per week by the end of June, come hell or high water.
From the Q1 earnings call:
“The thing I’m most excited about is the rapid increase in output. We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per day – sorry, per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.”
Anyone who has watched Tesla for any amount of time knows that Elon Musk is a perpetual “shoot for the stars” kind of CEO with his internal and external targets and is totally okay pushing his team farther than seems reasonable in order to accomplish more than they believed would have been possible.
Whether or not they are real, it is encouraging to hear multiple reports of increases in Model 3 production up into the 4,000+ range. That is, if you’re hopeful that we can combat this climate change thing and believe that Tesla has been and continues to be instrumental in pushing automotive, energy, and energy storage companies to evolve and to compete with the clean technologies the Silicon Valley company produces. I know I’m pulling for them.