According to Ingeniøren, the latest projection of energy consumption in Denmark by the Danish Energy Agency shows there will be more electric cars on the roads in the country by 2030. However, although cars are generally becoming more fuel efficient, the use of fossil fuels in transport will continue to increase.
Minister of transportation Ole Birk Olesen believes the current technological breakthrough in electric cars will result in more sales than the Danish Energy Agency predicts, which is in line with several international reports concluding more optimistic deployment scenarios of electric cars.
Well, Denmark is known as the land of confusion regarding EVs, with record low sales and at the same time record high numbers of Danes wanting more EVs on the road.
So, how will this small isolated market evolve? Ingeniøren present the numbers from the Danish Energy Agency:
The Danish Energy Agency has estimated that by 2030, 135,000 electric cars will travel the Danish roads, which corresponds to approximately 4 percent of the total stock of cars in Denmark.
Similarly, the proportion of fossil fuels in the transport sector — including ships, airplanes and trains — was expected to fall from 95% in 2017 to 92% by 2030.
However, the projection, which has just been published, also shows that the share of fossil fuels will probably not reach 92% of total energy consumption for transport, but only 93% by 2030.
The reason being an increase in energy consumption for road traffic of 6% from 2017 to 2030: The increase in energy consumption is due to the fact that the continuous improvement in energy efficiency does not offset the increase in the number of kilometers driven.
In other words, 93 percent of all transport in Denmark in 2030 will still be driven by fossil fuels.
Let’s hope not. It is notoriously difficult to predict the ketchup effect of EV sales, no matter what country you look at. Nobody thought Denmark would be so far behind by now, but on the other hand, nobody could have predicted the sudden shift in passenger car sales to electric propulsion happening in Norway.