Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica
A group of researchers led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has used new modelling scenarios to showcase several ways with which to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100. 

Climate Change

Researchers Unveil Several Ways To Limit Global Warming To 1.5°C By 2100

A group of researchers led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has used new modelling scenarios to showcase several ways with which to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100. 

A group of researchers led by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has used new modelling scenarios to showcase several ways with which to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100.

According to their research, “Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °Cpublished in the journal Nature Climate Change, there are in fact several ways to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5°C by 2100, but their modelling shows that the right circumstances are necessary. The research represents one of the first times that scientists investigating limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 have also looked at how socioeconomic conditions such as inequalities, energy demand, and international cooperation would contribute to the feasibility of achieving those goals.

The new research is based on six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, run under different socio-economic, technological, and resource assumptions that stem from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs were previously developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) along with key partners, and provide a look at different ways in which the world and society might progress. They include a scenario in which the world pursues sustainability, another scenario in which economic and population growth continues along business-as-usual pathways, and another in which the world focuses instead on high economic growth over sustainability.

The researchers showed that not all of these Pathways can limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, but did show (unsurprisingly) that all of the successfully modelled scenarios included a rapid shift away from the use of fossil fuels and towards low-carbon energy sources, lowered energy use, and the removal of CO2.

Meanwhile, barriers to achieving a 1.5°C limit to global warming included strong social and economic inequalities, continued reliance on fossil fuels, and unambitious short-term climate policies.

“A critical value of the paper is the use of the SSPs, which has helped to systematically explore conditions under which such extreme low targets might become attainable,” said IIASA Energy Program Director and coauthor Keywan Riahi. “Our assessment shows particularly the enormous value of pursuing sustainable development for reaching extreme low climate change targets. On the other hand, fragmentation and pronounced inequalities will likely come hand-in-hand with low levels of innovation and productivity, and thus may push the 1.5°C target out of reach.”

According to the research, successful scenarios saw greenhouse gas emissions peak and already begin to decline by 2030, continuing to decrease over the next two to three decades at which point zero net greenhouse gas emissions are reached between 2055 and 2075. The successful scenarios also limited energy demand by improving energy efficiency measures. Bioenergy and renewable energy technologies must scale up dramatically over the coming decades, making up at least 60% of electricity generation by 2050. Coal use must fall to less than 20% of its current levels by 2040 and oil is phased out by 2060.

“One of the goals of the Paris Agreement is to limit warming to 1.5°C, but scientific studies mainly looked at the question of limiting warming to 2°C,” said Joeri Rogelj, IIASA researcher and lead author of the study. “This study now fills this gap and explores how climate change by the end of the 21st century can be brought in line with 1.5°C of warming. Individual studies have looked at this question in the past, but this study is the first to use a broad and diverse set of models.”

The successful 1.5°C pathways are now intended for use by the wider climate change research community to be run on the most complex coupled climate models, and will serve as a starting point for further research.

“The study provides decision makers and the public with key information about some of the enabling conditions to achieve such stringent levels of climate protection,” added Rogelj.

Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.

 
 
Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.

Written By

I'm a Christian, a nerd, a geek, and I believe that we're pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), and can be found writing articles for a variety of other sites. Check me out at about.me for more.

Comments

#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.

 

Support our work today!

Advertisement

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports

Advertisement

EV Sales Charts, Graphs, & Stats

Advertisement

Our Electric Car Driver Report

30 Electric Car Benefits

Tesla Model 3 Video

Renewable Energy 101 In Depth

solar power facts

Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Clean Power

Originally published by Union of Concerned Scientists, The Equation. By John Rogers, Energy Campaign Analytic Lead In the face of this week’s astonishing temperatures, reliable...

Climate Change

Last week's heat dome may be just the beginning of a new normal as the Earth's climate tips over into a new age that...

Climate Change

Story by Kathryn Hansen. So far in 2021, British Columbia has already seen dangerous wildfires and heat. More than 40 wildfires were burning across...

Cars

Tesla’s mission is hyperfocused on sustainability and trying to mitigate the effects of climate change. I’ve written about Tesla’s Carbon Impact page before, but...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.