Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica
The 30% solar tariff that US President Donald Trump has agreed to impose on imported solar modules and cells will cause the US solar industry to constrict by 11% over the next 5 years, causing nearly a quarter million customers to no longer install solar. It will hit the utility-scale solar sector the hardest.

Clean Power

US Solar Tariff To Slam Industry In 2018 & 2019, But Slowly Recover (GTM Research)

The 30% solar tariff that US President Donald Trump has agreed to impose on imported solar modules and cells will cause the US solar industry to constrict by 11% over the next 5 years, causing nearly a quarter million customers to no longer install solar. It will hit the utility-scale solar sector the hardest.

The 30% solar tariff that US President Donald Trump has agreed to impose on imported solar modules and cells will cause the US solar industry to constrict by 11% over the next 5 years, causing nearly a quarter million customers to no longer install solar. It will hit the utility-scale solar sector the hardest.

These are some of the old and new findings from analyses conducted by GTM Research in the wake of Donald Trump’s decision to impose a solar tariff. Last week, GTM showed that the tariff will result in the US solar industry seeing an 11% decrease in installations between 2018 and 2022, a reduction that totals around 7.6 GW (gigawatts) of installed solar — not to mention the expected job losses which the Solar Energy Industries Association expects will be 23,000 in 2018 alone.

“Essentially, this has a meaningful but not destructive impact on solar installations, and at the same time it’s not exceptionally encouraging for domestic solar cell and module manufacturing,” said MJ Shiao, head of Americas research for GTM Research. “Some people look at it as a win-win; some people look at it as a lose-lose.”

This week, GTM Research has published a new analysis which digs deeper into the effects the solar tariff will have on the US solar industry and shows that 2018 will suffer the most visible brunt of the tariffs. This will be offset somewhat by existing and therefore unaffected projects already in development, pushing the real effects through to 2019, which will experience the most significant percentage drop compared to previous projections — a 16% loss as compared to original GTM Research predictions.

By segment, between 2018 and 2022, demand loss in terms of percentage and GW are:

  • Utility PV: 11.6%, 4.9 GW
  • Non-Residential PV: 10.7%, 1.1 GW
  • Residential PV: 9.9%, 1.5 GW

The utility-scale segment will be hardest hit, but will again show these impacts most in 2019, thanks to an existing short-term pipeline of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) projects and projects already in construction. Reductions to demand in the sector will be lower in 2020 and 2021 as projects already in development push out their completion date further to take advantage of the 5%-per-year tariff stepdown. GTM predicts that 2018 will therefore see around 6.1 GW of utility-scale solar installed.

The tariff will have immediate and lasting effects on the US solar industry. 2019 will only just squeak past 2017 figures, and growth thereafter will be staccato and slow. Both the residential and non-residential segments will have a relatively safe, if small 2018, with the tariffs impacts being felt most heavily in 2019. GTM also predicts that the tariff will have implications beyond its end point in 2022.


Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.
 
 
Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.
Written By

I'm a Christian, a nerd, a geek, and I believe that we're pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), and can be found writing articles for a variety of other sites. Check me out at about.me for more.

Comments

You May Also Like

Clean Power

Courtesy of NRDC. By Alex Jackson Governor Gavin Newsom unveiled his administration’s revised budget today, known colloquially as the May Revise, culminating a weeklong tour to...

Clean Power

Courtesy of Union Of Concerned Scientists. By Jessica Collingsworth, Energy policy analyst Special thanks to Brian Urbaszewski, Director of Environmental Health Programs at Respiratory Health Association, for...

Climate Change

California Governor Gavin Newsom expanded an emergency drought declaration from two to 41 of the state’s 58 counties on Monday. Of California’s nearly 40...

Air Quality

Southern California air quality regulators approved a rule on Friday to cut down on air pollution related to the approximately 3,000 logistics warehouses that...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.