Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica
Ben Sullins of Teslanomics has crunched the numbers and concluded that Tesla will produce 192,576 Model 3 sedans in 2018. How did he come up with that number? Watch the video to find out.

Cars

Teslanomics Predicts 192,576 Tesla Model 3 Sedans Will Be Manufactured In 2018

Ben Sullins of Teslanomics has crunched the numbers and concluded that Tesla will produce 192,576 Model 3 sedans in 2018. How did he come up with that number? Watch the video to find out.

Ben Sullins has created a nice little online business for himself with his Teslanomics channel on YouTube. Sullins has built a following by doing a credible job of taking the numbers Tesla provides, stripping away the hype, and having fun with numbers.

Teslanomics Model 3 production ramp

In his latest video, Sullins takes the guidance Tesla provided when it released its Q4 numbers, which said the company expected to hit 2,500 cars a week by the end of Q1 in 2018 and 5,000 cars by the end of Q2. Ben thinks that steep a ramp-up is unrealistic. Based on his 20 years of experience doing data analysis for industry, he thinks the logarithmic S curve to describe such a rapid ramp is just too steep. A more realistic production ramp would see Tesla getting to 5,000 cars a week by late this year or early in 2019.

Sullins’ estimate is not what a lot of Model 3 reservation holders or investors want to hear, but he believes it is realistic. If his forecast holds true, Tesla will build 192,576 Model 3’s in 2018. If Tesla’s numbers turn out to be accurate, the total for the year doesn’t change all that much, with about 245,000 cars being produced this year.

Part of Ben Sullins’ skepticism centers on the company’s claim that it would be building 1,000 cars a week by January 7. He personally doubts the accuracy of that statement and it is that doubt that has led him to make a more conservative estimate than Tesla’s. On another topic, Sullins has looked at the data to guesstimate when the federal EV tax credit will terminate for Tesla. Here’s what his analysis suggests:

You can see how that matches up with CleanTechnica’s take here: “330,000 Tesla Model 3 US Reservation Holders (Buyers) Could Take Advantage of the Federal EV Tax Credit.”

Teslanomics thinks Tesla will hit 200,000 total sales in Q2 of 2018. The federal tax credit continues for another quarter after that and then drops to 50% for 2 quarters and 25% for 2 quarters. So, Tesla buyers should get at least some federal tax credit through the third quarter of 2019. After that, the credit will likely disappear completely.

As part of his number crunching, Sullins has concluded that Elon Musk’s claim that the company will be building 10,000 cars a week by the end of 2018 is simply not realistic. In fact, he doubts the current production line at the Fremont factory can ever get to that level. He has no insider information but his industry experience suggests that 5,000 a week is much more credible number. Of course, Elon never said all those cars will necessarily be built at the Fremont factory.

 
Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality and cleantech news coverage? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.
 

Don't want to miss a cleantech story? Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News!
 

Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.
Advertisement
 
Written By

Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Florida or anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. You can follow him on Twitter but not on any social media platforms run by evil overlords like Facebook.

Comments

#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.

 

Support our work today!

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Cars

Is Tesla considering a new factory located in Ontario? A recent filing suggests it could be.

Cars

Jon Edwards, as told to David Waterworth The team behind the Tesla Model 3 Targa West success story plans to be part of the...

Batteries

Tesla has entered into an agreement with Indonesia to purchase $5 billion worth of nickel over the next 5 years.

Cars

Amidst the bouts of laughter and Musk-centered adoration were several references to Tesla's future planning, leading to more speculation about the company's direction with...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.