32% EV Market Share In Norway

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Despite the country being home to only around 5 million people, thanks to generous incentives, a high per-capita income, and decades of EV development and awareness raising, Norway is currently the third largest plug-in electric vehicle market in the world — behind only China and the US.

The most recent figures released by our friends over at EV Volumes show that growth so far this year in the market has remained quite strong, allowing Norway to easily maintain that position.

Altogether, around 43,700 plug-in electric passenger cars and light commercial vehicles have been sold in Norway so far in 2017 (as of the end of September). That figure represents a roughly 29% year-on-year growth-rate — correlating with sales of 33,900 during the first 9 months of 2016.

Despite total plug-in electric vehicle sales in the country being eclipsed by those in China and the US, Norway is the top country in the world as regards market share (by far). In the first 9 months of 2017, electric vehicles captured a 32% market share, as compared to a 24% share in 2016. For comparison, #2 was Iceland at 8%, #3 was Sweden at 4%, #4 was Ukraine at 3%, and #5 was Belgium at 2%. (China was at 1.6% and the US at 1.1%, according to EV Volumes.)

Notably, September 2017 saw a strong increase in sales. With a total of 6,650 registrations during the month, it set a new all-time monthly record. Overall, Quarter 3 2017 was well above expectations, with a 41% growth rate.

EV Volumes provides more: “Once known for its preference for BEVs over PHEVs, the introduction of higher tax savings on PHEVs changed significantly the mix in 2015 and 2016, with plug-in hybrids winning share and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV even winning the Best Seller status last year.

“This year the picture isn’t much different, with sales of pure EVs winning just 1% share (56%) over PHEVs (44%). In Q4, expect the BEV share to grow a little more, as popular EV models, like the VW e-Golf, top the charts. 2018 will see a slow recovery from BEVs, and we expect the EV/PHEV split to be around 70/30 sometime in 2019. That year, new models will favor all-electric vehicles volume, like the long awaited Tesla Model 3, likely to make it to Europe in Q4 2018 and deliver in big volumes during the following year, while German OEMs plan to launch their dedicated BEVs in 2019.”

With Norway’s plug-in electric vehicle market share now as high as it is (32%), it’ll be very interesting to see what happens over the next few years: How high can that figure rise? Will it plateau well under 100% owing to the lack of useful electric offerings for some niches? What happens if the “Tesla tax” goes into effect?

For more on the S-curve of technology adoption and how Norway and other countries fit into it with regard to electric cars, see: “Electric Car S-Curve Adoption By Country (Fun Chart!).”

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James Ayre

James Ayre's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy.

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