The hottest unanswered question in the automotive universe is, when will my Tesla Model 3 be delivered? The answer involves a complex combination of factors. When did you reserve yours? What options do you want? Do you work for Tesla or SpaceX? Do you already own a Tesla? Where do you live? Do you have actual money with which to buy or lease the car?
The permutations are nearly infinite, which led Ben Sullins of Teslanomics, together with his pals at the Tesla Motors Club forum, to design a customized algorithm that will take all the data, smoosh it together in a computer hidden under Sullins’ back porch, and spit out an estimated delivery date for your personal car.
There is nothing scientific about this. Any relationship between the date the Teslanomics app gives you and reality is strictly coincidental. But it is something to do while you wait for Elon to press that big green button marked “Start” at the beginning of the Model 3 production line, and it’s better than wasting time with a fidget spinner.
Here’s what we know so far: When you made your reservation is important. Tesla and SpaceX employees were able to reserve cars two weeks ahead of the general public. Workers at the Fremont factory will have priority. People who live near the Fremont factory will have priority. Current Tesla owners will have priority. Deliveries will spread out in ever expanding circles from Fremont, the hub of the Tesla universe for all practical purposes.
Tesla intends to build thousands of cars — or maybe tens of thousands of cars — that are all configured alike to begin with. That doesn’t mean they will all be entry-level cars. It just means they will all have some combination of features and options that Tesla thinks will represent the desires of typical customers.
The cars coming off the end of the line will all be the same except for paint color and wheel selection. They will all have the same battery. The speculation is it will be the 75 kWh unit Musk says is the largest that will fit in the Model 3 chassis. The popular glass roof option is not expected to be part of the original production run … but others think it is.
Tesla says the starting price for the Model 3 will by $35,000, but that doesn’t mean these early cars will sell for that price. Tesla could carefully configure the cars to be affordable but also a good source of revenue for the company in the early production stages. If you want an entry-level Model 3 with no options, your car may not get built before the midterm elections in 2018. Though, we don’t actually have a definitive answer from Twitter Elon if base-level Model 3s will be some of the first 3s to be produced.
In the end, a Tesla employee who wants a Model 3 with no options or with all the options may have to wait until a customer in Kankakee takes delivery. People in Katmandu, meanwhile, will get their cars in time for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, if they are lucky.
Are you ready? Wanna know when yours will arrive? Jump on over to the Teslanomics guess-o-meter app, plug in your information, and find out when your Model 3 will arrive. Good luck!
Oh, and by the way, whether Tesla ramps up production in July, October, December, or February makes a tad bit of difference.
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